J1 League · Regular Season - 15
Vissel Kobe vs Mito Hollyhock
Fri 20 Nov 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Noevir Stadium, Kobe
Vissel Kobe host Mito Hollyhock on Fri 20 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Vissel Kobe 69%, draw 19%, Mito Hollyhock 12%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Vissel Kobe €782K, Mito Hollyhock €277K.
- Draw chance 19%, below the J1 League average of 27% this round.
- Mito Hollyhock's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Vissel Kobe goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 3–08%
- 1–08%
- 3–18%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Vissel Kobe 1853 · Mito Hollyhock 1519
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Vissel Kobe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.9 (Good) · Elo 1887
Mito Hollyhock · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1642
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Vissel Kobe
5th in J1 League · 26 pts from 13
- 3 NovWRatchaburi AFC Champions League1745
- 31 OctWNagoya Grampus J1 League1852
- 27 OctWDaejeon Citizen AFC Champions League1765
- 24 OctDMachida Zelvia J1 League1852
- 21 OctLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1870
Mito Hollyhock
19th in J1 League · 9 pts from 13
- 31 OctLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1477
- 25 OctLFC Tokyo J1 League1472
- 21 OctLFagiano Okayama J1 League1534
- 17 OctLUrawa J1 League1540
- 11 OctLShimizu S-pulse J1 League1521
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe | 26 /13 | 68.7 | 9% | 57% | 0% | 4th |
| Mito Hollyhock | 9 /13 | 32.3 | 0% | 0% | 75% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Vissel Kobe: high-pressing (how M. Skibbe plays) · Mito Hollyhock: balanced profile (how Naoki Mori plays)