Our model beats the market

We calculate match probabilities from individual player ELO ratings of both starting lineups. Each player's contribution is weighted by position, producing a probability distribution over home win, draw, and away win.

When our model assigns a higher probability to an outcome than the market implies, we've found closing line value. This edge is the foundation of long-term profitability in sports betting.

This strategy focuses on underdogs — matches where the market underestimates the weaker team. Our model detects situations where the implied probability is too low relative to the true probability of an upset.

All results are measured against Pinnacle closing odds, widely considered the sharpest line in the industry. Beating the closing line consistently is the strongest indicator of genuine predictive edge.