J1 League · Regular Season - 12
Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Noevir Stadium, Kobe
Vissel Kobe host Machida Zelvia on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Vissel Kobe 36%, draw 29%, Machida Zelvia 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Vissel Kobe €870K, Machida Zelvia €1.3M.
- Home advantage makes Vissel Kobe the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
- J1 League: K. Tani is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2043).
- All 11 of Vissel Kobe's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Vissel Kobe goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Vissel Kobe 1843 · Machida Zelvia 1899
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Vissel Kobe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1897
Machida Zelvia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1962
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Vissel Kobe
4th in J1 League · 22 pts from 10
- 18 OctWFagiano Okayama J1 League1863
- 14 OctWJeonbuk Motors AFC Champions League1852
- 9 OctLKashiwa Reysol J1 League1859
- 20 SepWGamba Osaka J1 League1849
- 16 SepWPort FC AFC Champions League1824
Machida Zelvia
2nd in J1 League · 23 pts from 10
- 18 OctWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1919
- 15 OctWTampines Rovers AFC Cup1726
- 10 OctWKyoto Sanga J1 League1882
- 20 SepLKashiwa Reysol J1 League1902
- 12 SepDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1904
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe | 22 /10 | 69.1 | 15% | 66% | 0% | 3rd |
| Machida Zelvia | 23 /10 | 73.1 | 36% | 85% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Vissel Kobe: high-pressing (how Michael Heinz Skibbe plays) · Machida Zelvia: direct (how Go Kuroda plays)