UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal
Villarreal host Paris Saint Germain on Tue 3 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Villarreal 22%, draw 26%, Paris Saint Germain 51%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Villarreal €11.8M, Paris Saint Germain €56.8M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the UEFA Champions League League Stage - 4: 307 points.
- Ligue 1: M. Safonov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2457).
- Paris Saint Germain have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Villarreal goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–29%
- 0–08%
- 2–16%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 4.0 pts
Team Elo: Villarreal 2181 · Paris Saint Germain 2488
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Villarreal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Good) · Elo 2305
Paris Saint Germain · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2598
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Villarreal
12th in La Liga · 9 pts from 9
- 17 OctDElche La Liga2148
- 13 OctWNapoli UEFA Champions League2151
- 10 OctLReal Madrid La Liga2193
- 20 SepWLevante La Liga2151
- 17 SepWMalaga La Liga2131
Paris Saint Germain
2nd in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 17 OctWStrasbourg Ligue 12416
- 14 OctWManchester City UEFA Champions League2466
- 10 OctWLe Mans Ligue 12381
- 20 SepWMarseille Ligue 12464
- 13 SepWStade Brestois 29 Ligue 12476
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 3 /2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 68.8 | 22.7 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 6 /2 | 16.3 | 67.5 | 31.8 | 0.7 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Villarreal: balanced profile (how Iñigo Pérez Soto plays) · Paris Saint Germain: possession-based · creative (how Luis Enrique plays)