Champions League

League phase after 2 of 8 matchdays, from 10,000 Monte-Carlo runs of our player-Elo model.

League phase

#	Club	Team Elo	Pld	Pts	Pred Pts	Top 8 %	Play-off %	Out %
1	Arsenal	2624	2	6	18.9	92.0	8.0	0.0
2	Barcelona	2617	2	6	18.3	87.7	12.2	0.1
3	Real Madrid	2482	2	6	18.2	85.3	14.6	0.1
4	Paris Saint Germain	2488	2	6	16.3	67.5	31.8	0.7
5	Liverpool	2356	2	6	15.8	58.3	40.6	1.1
6	Manchester City	2618	2	3	15.8	62.5	36.7	0.8
7	Aston Villa	2375	2	6	15.8	62.3	37.0	0.7
8	Bayern München	2528	2	4	15.3	56.4	42.4	1.1
9	Real Betis	2270	2	6	14.5	36.9	60.3	2.8
10	Atletico Madrid	2378	2	3	13.7	31.6	63.1	5.2
11	Sporting CP	2223	2	6	13.4	23.9	70.6	5.5
12	VfB Stuttgart	2161	2	6	13.2	24.4	68.8	6.8
13	Manchester United	2361	2	3	12.2	18.0	68.2	13.8
14	Inter	2406	2	0	12.0	15.5	72.4	12.1
15	Borussia Dortmund	2258	2	3	11.5	10.1	71.5	18.4
16	Club Brugge KV	2182	2	3	11.2	9.6	68.0	22.4
17	Fenerbahçe	2266	2	1	11.1	7.1	66.5	26.4
18	Villarreal	2181	2	3	11.0	8.5	68.8	22.7
19	Como	2286	2	3	10.8	8.2	67.7	24.1
20	RB Leipzig	2226	2	3	10.7	5.2	66.3	28.5
21	FC Porto	2301	2	0	10.6	6.5	67.0	26.5
22	AS Roma	2263	2	1	10.5	5.5	68.4	26.1
23	Bodo/Glimt	2070	2	3	10.3	4.3	57.4	38.4
24	Feyenoord	2102	2	3	9.6	3.0	50.1	46.8
25	Shakhtar Donetsk	1993	2	4	9.5	2.7	52.6	44.8
26	Napoli	2217	2	0	9.4	1.9	56.5	41.5
27	Lens	2077	2	3	8.5	1.3	39.4	59.3
28	PSV Eindhoven	2171	2	1	8.4	1.5	41.9	56.7
29	Galatasaray	2216	2	0	8.3	1.0	39.2	59.7
30	AEK Athens FC	2067	2	3	7.8	0.6	30.2	69.2
31	Lille	2069	2	0	7.1	0.4	26.0	73.6
32	Viking	1917	2	1	6.4	0.1	17.0	82.9
33	Sabah FA	1766	2	3	5.7	0.0	7.2	92.8
34	Lask Linz	1914	2	0	5.2	0.0	8.1	91.9
35	Slovan Bratislava	1740	2	0	3.5	0.0	1.9	98.1
36	Slavia Praha	1919	2	0	3.1	0.0	1.6	98.4

Top 8 go straight to the round of 16, 9–24 into the knockout play-off, 25–36 are out.

Provisional chances (home · draw · away) from both squads' Elo until the line-ups are confirmed. All times UTC.

Each row sums to ~100%. Columns are final league-phase positions; the dividers mark the top-8 and 9–24 cut-offs.

Club	Top 8	9–24	Out
Arsenal	92%	8%	0%
Barcelona	88%	12%	0%
Real Madrid	85%	15%	0%
Paris Saint Germain	68%	32%	1%
Liverpool	58%	40%	1%
Manchester City	63%	37%	1%
Aston Villa	62%	37%	1%
Bayern München	56%	42%	1%
Real Betis	37%	60%	3%
Atletico Madrid	32%	63%	5%
Sporting CP	24%	71%	5%
VfB Stuttgart	24%	69%	7%
Manchester United	18%	68%	14%
Inter	15%	72%	12%
Borussia Dortmund	10%	71%	18%
Club Brugge KV	10%	68%	22%
Fenerbahçe	7%	67%	26%
Villarreal	8%	69%	23%
Como	8%	68%	24%
RB Leipzig	5%	66%	29%
FC Porto	7%	67%	26%
AS Roma	6%	68%	26%
Bodo/Glimt	4%	58%	38%
Feyenoord	3%	50%	47%
Shakhtar Donetsk	3%	53%	45%
Napoli	2%	57%	42%
Lens	1%	39%	59%
PSV Eindhoven	1%	42%	57%
Galatasaray	1%	39%	60%
AEK Athens FC	1%	30%	69%
Lille	<1%	26%	74%
Viking	0%	17%	83%
Sabah FA	0%	7%	93%
Lask Linz	0%	8%	92%
Slovan Bratislava	0%	2%	98%
Slavia Praha	0%	2%	98%

Full position matrix below; the club column stays put as you scroll.