UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2
Viking 3–3 Bayern München
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · SR-Bank Arena, Stavanger
VikingTeam 1905Bayern MünchenTeam 2525- Harry Kane 54' (pen)
- Harry Kane 60'
- Luis Díaz 71'
We gave Bayern München 78% to win: it ended in a draw.
- Gianni Stensness 2017 +18 assist Zlatko Tripić 1986 +162'Viking:Gianni Stensness 2017 +18 assist Zlatko Tripić 1986 +16
- Peter Christiansen 2053 +15 assist Erik Botheim 1858 +3238'Viking:Peter Christiansen 2053 +15 assist Erik Botheim 1858 +32
- 45'Alphonso Davies 2450 −1 for Nathaniel Brown 2180 0Bayern München:Alphonso Davies 2450 −1 for Nathaniel Brown 2180 0
- 45'Ismael Saibari 2340 0 for Lennart Karl 2310 0Bayern München:Ismael Saibari 2340 0 for Lennart Karl 2310 0
- 45'Dayot Upamecano 2636 −4 for Jonathan Tah 2519 −4Bayern München:Dayot Upamecano 2636 −4 for Jonathan Tah 2519 −4
- 52'Konrad Laimer 2509 −5Bayern München:Konrad Laimer 2509 −5
- Kristoffer Haugen 1931 +253'Viking:Kristoffer Haugen 1931 +2
- 54'Harry Kane 2536 −15 (pen.)Bayern München:Harry Kane 2536 −15 (pen.)
- Jesper Daland 1824 +4 for Kristoffer Haugen 1931 +259'Viking:Jesper Daland 1824 +4 for Kristoffer Haugen 1931 +2
- 60'Harry Kane 2536 −15 assist Joshua Kimmich 2507 −11Bayern München:Harry Kane 2536 −15 assist Joshua Kimmich 2507 −11
- Jesper Daland 1824 +467'Viking:Jesper Daland 1824 +4
- 68'Ismael Saibari 2340 0Bayern München:Ismael Saibari 2340 0
- 71'Luis Díaz 2602 −15 assist Konrad Laimer 2509 −5Bayern München:Luis Díaz 2602 −15 assist Konrad Laimer 2509 −5
- Herman Haugen 1686 +10 for Henrik Bjørdal 1696 +1372'Viking:Herman Haugen 1686 +10 for Henrik Bjørdal 1696 +13
- 73'Michael Olise 2647 −6Bayern München:Michael Olise 2647 −6
- 73'Michael Olise 2647 −6Bayern München:Michael Olise 2647 −6
- 76'Josip Stanišić 2594 −1 for Luis Díaz 2602 −15Bayern München:Josip Stanišić 2594 −1 for Luis Díaz 2602 −15
- 83'Hiroki Ito 2300 −8* for Ismael Saibari 2340 0Bayern München:Hiroki Ito 2300 −8* for Ismael Saibari 2340 0
- Simen Kvia Egeskog 1956 +1 for Joe Bell 1997 +685'Viking:Simen Kvia Egeskog 1956 +1 for Joe Bell 1997 +6
- Viljar Helland Vevatne 1682 −10* for Henrik Heggheim 2042 +685'Viking:Viljar Helland Vevatne 1682 −10* for Henrik Heggheim 2042 +6
- Tobias Moi 1671 +1 for Erik Botheim 1858 +3285'Viking:Tobias Moi 1671 +1 for Erik Botheim 1858 +32
- Herman Haugen 1686 +10 assist Zlatko Tripić 1986 +1690'Viking:Herman Haugen 1686 +10 assist Zlatko Tripić 1986 +16
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 9% · 13% · 78%(Viking · draw · Bayern München)
Our most likely score was 1–3 (8%); the result 3–3 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Viking €2.6M, Bayern München €41.1M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the UEFA Champions League League Stage - 2: 600 points.
- Draw chance was 16%, below the UEFA Champions League average of 23% this round.
- Bundesliga: D. Upamecano was the highest-rated defender (2639).
- Bayern München's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.8 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Viking
1st in Eliteserien · 53 pts from 22
- 9 OctWBrann Eliteserien1941
- 20 SepWLillestrom Eliteserien1929
- 13 SepWKristiansund BK Eliteserien1911
- 9 SepLVfB Stuttgart UEFA Champions League1896
- 4 SepDSandefjord Eliteserien1895
Bayern München
3rd in Bundesliga · 11 pts from 5
- 10 OctDFC Augsburg Bundesliga2548
- 18 SepWUnion Berlin Bundesliga2566
- 13 SepWSV Elversberg Bundesliga2465
- 10 SepWBodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League2552
- 5 SepDFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga2481
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 1 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking | 0 /1 | 6.0 | 0.2 | 14.8 | 85.0 |
| Bayern München | 3 /1 | 16.7 | 73.9 | 25.6 | 0.5 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Viking · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.6 (Elite) · Elo 1970
Bayern München · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.1 (Elite) · Elo 2518
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Viking: balanced profile (how Bjarte Andre Lunde Aarsheim plays) · Bayern München: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Vincent Kompany plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.