UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · MHP Arena, Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart host Atletico Madrid on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: VfB Stuttgart 28%, draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 44%.
- Average value of the expected XI: VfB Stuttgart €15.2M, Atletico Madrid €25.0M.
- Atletico Madrid are without 1 expected starter: C. Romero (2458).
- Draw chance 28%, above the UEFA Champions League average of 22% this round.
- Atletico Madrid have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. VfB Stuttgart goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: VfB Stuttgart 2161 · Atletico Madrid 2378
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: Marc Pubill for C. Romero.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
VfB Stuttgart · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2218
Atletico Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2401
Absences
VfB Stuttgart
Ruled out
- D. ZagadouMuscle Injury2140
Doubtful
- Tiago TomásMuscle Injury2140
- N. NarteyMuscle Injury2045
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
VfB Stuttgart
13th in Bundesliga · 6 pts from 6
- 17 OctLHamburger SV Bundesliga2213
- 14 OctWSlovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League2156
- 10 OctWSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2183
- 19 SepLBorussia Dortmund Bundesliga2190
- 12 SepL1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga2147
Atletico Madrid
2nd in La Liga · 22 pts from 9
- 17 OctWEspanyol La Liga2372
- 13 OctWManchester United UEFA Champions League2396
- 10 OctWAlaves La Liga2348
- 20 SepWReal Madrid La Liga2353
- 16 SepWOsasuna La Liga2327
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 6 /2 | 13.2 | 24.4 | 68.8 | 6.8 |
| Atletico Madrid | 3 /2 | 13.7 | 31.6 | 63.1 | 5.2 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
VfB Stuttgart: possession-based · creative (how Sebastian Hoeneß plays) · Atletico Madrid: possession-based (how Diego Pablo Simeone González plays)