J1 League · Regular Season - 13
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Peace Stadium, Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki host Tokyo Verdy on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: V-varen Nagasaki 45%, draw 28%, Tokyo Verdy 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: V-varen Nagasaki €370K, Tokyo Verdy €366K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. V-varen Nagasaki goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: V-varen Nagasaki 1613 · Tokyo Verdy 1556
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
V-varen Nagasaki · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 (Good) · Elo 1643
Tokyo Verdy · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1577
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
V-varen Nagasaki
15th in J1 League · 9 pts from 10
- 17 OctLKashima J1 League1564
- 11 OctDJEF United Chiba J1 League1601
- 19 SepDCerezo Osaka J1 League1608
- 12 SepWNagoya Grampus J1 League1570
- 6 SepLVissel Kobe J1 League1615
Tokyo Verdy
20th in J1 League · 4 pts from 10
- 17 OctLFC Tokyo J1 League1556
- 11 OctLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1566
- 19 SepLUrawa J1 League1598
- 13 SepDJEF United Chiba J1 League1600
- 6 SepDCerezo Osaka J1 League1569
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V-varen Nagasaki | 9 /10 | 41.0 | 0% | 0% | 24% | 17th |
| Tokyo Verdy | 4 /10 | 32.5 | 0% | 0% | 75% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
V-varen Nagasaki: balanced profile (how Takuya Takagi plays) · Tokyo Verdy: balanced profile (how Naoki Soma plays)