J1 League · Regular Season - 11
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki host Sanfrecce Hiroshima on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: V-varen Nagasaki 23%, draw 27%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 50%.
- Average value of the expected XI: V-varen Nagasaki €370K, Sanfrecce Hiroshima €1.5M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of J1 League matchday 11: 250 points.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. V-varen Nagasaki goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–29%
- 0–08%
- 2–16%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: V-varen Nagasaki 1613 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1863
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
V-varen Nagasaki · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 (Good) · Elo 1643
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 1913
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
V-varen Nagasaki
15th in J1 League · 9 pts from 10
- 17 OctLKashima J1 League1564
- 11 OctDJEF United Chiba J1 League1601
- 19 SepDCerezo Osaka J1 League1608
- 12 SepWNagoya Grampus J1 League1570
- 6 SepLVissel Kobe J1 League1615
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1st in J1 League · 23 pts from 10
- 17 OctWKyoto Sanga J1 League1847
- 11 OctWTokyo Verdy J1 League1829
- 19 SepWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1821
- 12 SepWCerezo Osaka J1 League1811
- 6 SepLFagiano Okayama J1 League1853
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V-varen Nagasaki | 9 /10 | 41.0 | 0% | 0% | 24% | 17th |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 23 /10 | 69.9 | 20% | 71% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
V-varen Nagasaki: balanced profile (how Takuya Takagi plays) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima: creative · shot-heavy (how Bartosch Gaul plays)