J1 League · Regular Season - 16
V-varen Nagasaki vs Kawasaki Frontale
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Peace Stadium, Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki host Kawasaki Frontale on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: V-varen Nagasaki 32%, draw 29%, Kawasaki Frontale 39%.
- Average value of the expected XI: V-varen Nagasaki €347K, Kawasaki Frontale €839K.
- All 11 of Kawasaki Frontale's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. V-varen Nagasaki goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–28%
- 0–18%
- 2–17%
- 1–07%
- 2–27%
- Other scores49%
Team Elo: V-varen Nagasaki 1590 · Kawasaki Frontale 1706
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
V-varen Nagasaki · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1651
Kawasaki Frontale · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1764
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
V-varen Nagasaki
16th in J1 League · 13 pts from 14
- 7 NovDAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1572
- 1 NovLTokyo Verdy J1 League1650
- 25 OctLUrawa J1 League1626
- 21 OctWSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1543
- 17 OctLKashima J1 League1554
Kawasaki Frontale
8th in J1 League · 22 pts from 14
- 7 NovLKashiwa Reysol J1 League1694
- 1 NovLYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1763
- 25 OctWFagiano Okayama J1 League1749
- 21 OctWVissel Kobe J1 League1671
- 17 OctWCerezo Osaka J1 League1705
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V-varen Nagasaki | 13 /14 | 39.2 | 0% | 0% | 30% | 17th |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 22 /14 | 54.6 | <1% | 2% | <1% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
V-varen Nagasaki: balanced profile (how Takuya Takagi plays) · Kawasaki Frontale: balanced profile (how Shigetoshi Hasebe plays)