Primera División · Clausura - 11
UTC Cajamarca 0–1 Sporting Cristal
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca
UTC CajamarcaTeam 1345Sporting CristalTeam 1634Match story
UTC Cajamarca · draw · Sporting CristalBefore kick-off: 18% · 21% · 61%
Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 2% · 98%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Luis Iberico 12'
We gave Sporting Cristal 61% to win: they did.
- 12'Luis Iberico 1674 +4* assist Yoshimar Yotún 1634 −2*Sporting Cristal:Luis Iberico 1674 +4* assist Yoshimar Yotún 1634 −2*
- Gilmar Paredes 1423 −8*20'UTC Cajamarca:Gilmar Paredes 1423 −8*
- 31'Santiago González 1749 −5*Sporting Cristal:Santiago González 1749 −5*
- Arquímedes Figuera 1161 −18*51'UTC Cajamarca:Arquímedes Figuera 1161 −18*
- Manuel Ganoza 1438 −8*56'UTC Cajamarca:Manuel Ganoza 1438 −8*
- Adolfo Muñoz 1444 −9* for Jhosep Nunez 1231 −8*57'UTC Cajamarca:Adolfo Muñoz 1444 −9* for Jhosep Nunez 1231 −8*
- Abdiel Arroyo 1299 −12* for Joshua Cantt 1271 −8*65'UTC Cajamarca:Abdiel Arroyo 1299 −12* for Joshua Cantt 1271 −8*
- 69'Luis Abram 1598 −5* for Maxloren Castro 1703 +3*Sporting Cristal:Luis Abram 1598 −5* for Maxloren Castro 1703 +3*
- 69'Gabriel 1504 −11* for Luis Iberico 1674 +4*Sporting Cristal:Gabriel 1504 −11* for Luis Iberico 1674 +4*
- 72'Michael Hoyos 1566 −8*Sporting Cristal:Michael Hoyos 1566 −8*
- 74'Martín Távara 1643 −5* for Yoshimar Yotún 1634 −2*Sporting Cristal:Martín Távara 1643 −5* for Yoshimar Yotún 1634 −2*
- 74'Hernán Barcos 1329 −24* for Michael Hoyos 1566 −8*Sporting Cristal:Hernán Barcos 1329 −24* for Michael Hoyos 1566 −8*
- 77'Juan Manuel Cuesta 1655 −7* for Santiago González 1749 −5*Sporting Cristal:Juan Manuel Cuesta 1655 −7* for Santiago González 1749 −5*
- Gilmar Paredes 1423 −8*82'UTC Cajamarca:Gilmar Paredes 1423 −8*
- Santiago Gálvez 1210 −8* for Marlon de Jesús 1383 −14*84'UTC Cajamarca:Santiago Gálvez 1210 −8* for Marlon de Jesús 1383 −14*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 18% · 21% · 61%(UTC Cajamarca · draw · Sporting Cristal)
Our most likely score was 1–2 (9%); the result 0–1 had 6%.
- Average value of the starting XI: UTC Cajamarca €193K, Sporting Cristal €631K.
- Style contrast in attacking (Primera División): UTC Cajamarca ranked #15 of 18, Sporting Cristal #4.
- UTC Cajamarca's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.5 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
UTC Cajamarca
18th in Primera División · 15 pts from 27
- 20 SepLSport Huancayo Peru Primera Division1390
- 11 SepLJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1423
- 4 SepLAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1414
- 29 AugLUniversitario Peru Primera Division1434
- 22 AugLComerciantes Unidos Peru Primera Division1415
Sporting Cristal
9th in Primera División · 38 pts from 27
- 19 SepWAtletico Grau Peru Primera Division1654
- 13 SepWUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1642
- 6 SepWClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1620
- 30 AugLSport Boys Peru Primera Division1642
- 21 AugLAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1656
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 15 /27 | 21.5 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 18th |
| Sporting Cristal | 38 /27 | 49.2 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
UTC Cajamarca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.0 (Good) · Elo 1400
Sporting Cristal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.0 (Good) · Elo 1636
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
UTC Cajamarca: balanced profile (how Cristián Molins plays) · Sporting Cristal: balanced profile (how Roberto Orlando Mosquera Vera plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.