Primera División · Clausura - 13
UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca host FBC Melgar on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: UTC Cajamarca 16%, draw 23%, FBC Melgar 62%.
- Average value of the expected XI: UTC Cajamarca €182K, FBC Melgar €577K.
- Style contrast in attacking (Primera División): UTC Cajamarca rank #15 of 18, FBC Melgar #1.
- UTC Cajamarca's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.5 over 180 days.
- FBC Melgar are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. UTC Cajamarca goals first.
- 1–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
- 0–37%
- 1–37%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: UTC Cajamarca 1401 · FBC Melgar 1729
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
UTC Cajamarca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1379
FBC Melgar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1819
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
UTC Cajamarca
18th in Primera División · 15 pts from 29
- 18 OctLCienciano Peru Primera Division1396
- 11 OctLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1384
- 20 SepLSport Huancayo Peru Primera Division1390
- 11 SepLJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1423
- 4 SepLAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1414
FBC Melgar
3rd in Primera División · 50 pts from 29
- 17 OctWDeportivo Garcilaso Peru Primera Division1713
- 11 OctDUniversitario Peru Primera Division1727
- 20 SepDSport Boys Peru Primera Division1720
- 12 SepWCusco Peru Primera Division1711
- 6 SepWADT Peru Primera Division1710
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 15 /29 | 19.6 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 18th |
| FBC Melgar | 50 /29 | 59.1 | 0% | 92% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
UTC Cajamarca: balanced profile (how Cristián Molins plays) · FBC Melgar: balanced profile (how Miguel Ángel Rondelli plays)