J1 League · Regular Season - 12
Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Saitama Stadium, Saitama
Urawa host V-varen Nagasaki on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Urawa 54%, draw 25%, V-varen Nagasaki 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Urawa €818K, V-varen Nagasaki €370K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Urawa goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Urawa 1780 · V-varen Nagasaki 1613
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Urawa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1847
V-varen Nagasaki · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 (Good) · Elo 1643
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Urawa
9th in J1 League · 15 pts from 10
- 17 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1781
- 10 OctLFC Tokyo J1 League1799
- 19 SepWTokyo Verdy J1 League1772
- 13 SepLFagiano Okayama J1 League1711
- 6 SepWKashima J1 League1725
V-varen Nagasaki
15th in J1 League · 9 pts from 10
- 17 OctLKashima J1 League1564
- 11 OctDJEF United Chiba J1 League1601
- 19 SepDCerezo Osaka J1 League1608
- 12 SepWNagoya Grampus J1 League1570
- 6 SepLVissel Kobe J1 League1615
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urawa | 15 /10 | 58.2 | 1% | 10% | <1% | 7th |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 9 /10 | 41.0 | 0% | 0% | 24% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Urawa: possession-based (how Kwi-Jae Cho plays) · V-varen Nagasaki: balanced profile (how Takuya Takagi plays)