J1 League · Regular Season - 11
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 10:30 UTC · Saitama Stadium 2002, Saitama
Urawa host JEF United Chiba on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Urawa 61%, draw 23%, JEF United Chiba 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Urawa €818K, JEF United Chiba €375K.
- JEF United Chiba's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.7 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Urawa goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Urawa 1780 · JEF United Chiba 1537
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Urawa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1847
JEF United Chiba · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1496
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Urawa
9th in J1 League · 15 pts from 10
- 17 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1781
- 10 OctLFC Tokyo J1 League1799
- 19 SepWTokyo Verdy J1 League1772
- 13 SepLFagiano Okayama J1 League1711
- 6 SepWKashima J1 League1725
JEF United Chiba
19th in J1 League · 6 pts from 10
- 17 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1509
- 11 OctDV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1527
- 19 SepLShimizu S-pulse J1 League1546
- 13 SepDTokyo Verdy J1 League1553
- 6 SepWGamba Osaka J1 League1452
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urawa | 15 /10 | 58.2 | 1% | 10% | <1% | 7th |
| JEF United Chiba | 6 /10 | 33.2 | 0% | 0% | 72% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Urawa: possession-based (how Kwi-Jae Cho plays) · JEF United Chiba: balanced profile (how Yoshiyuki Kobayashi plays)