J1 League · Regular Season - 16
Urawa vs Cerezo Osaka
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 10:30 UTC · Saitama Stadium, Saitama
Urawa host Cerezo Osaka on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Urawa 49%, draw 27%, Cerezo Osaka 24%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Urawa €922K, Cerezo Osaka €620K.
- All 11 of Cerezo Osaka's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Urawa goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: Urawa 1782 · Cerezo Osaka 1679
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Urawa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1858
Cerezo Osaka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1736
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Urawa
9th in J1 League · 22 pts from 14
- 8 NovDVissel Kobe J1 League1774
- 31 OctLKashiwa Reysol J1 League1793
- 25 OctWV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1797
- 21 OctWJEF United Chiba J1 League1780
- 17 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1782
Cerezo Osaka
11th in J1 League · 17 pts from 14
- 8 NovWGamba Osaka J1 League1691
- 31 OctLKashima J1 League1639
- 25 OctDJEF United Chiba J1 League1672
- 21 OctDNagoya Grampus J1 League1655
- 17 OctLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1693
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urawa | 22 /14 | 59.5 | <1% | 8% | 0% | 7th |
| Cerezo Osaka | 17 /14 | 47.4 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Urawa: possession-based (how Kwi-Jae Cho plays) · Cerezo Osaka: possession-based (how Pablo Machín plays)