Primera División · Clausura - 16
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Monumental, Lima
Universitario host UCV Moquegua on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Universitario 65%, draw 21%, UCV Moquegua 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Universitario €676K, UCV Moquegua €239K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Primera División Clausura - 16: 293 points.
- Draw chance 21%, below the Primera División average of 27% this round.
- Primera División: A. Valera is the highest-rated forward (1842).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Universitario goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Universitario 1722 · UCV Moquegua 1429
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Universitario · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1789
UCV Moquegua · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1546
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Universitario
2nd in Primera División · 53 pts from 29
- 18 OctWAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1684
- 11 OctDFBC Melgar Peru Primera Division1695
- 19 SepLDeportivo Garcilaso Peru Primera Division1759
- 13 SepWAlianza Lima Peru Primera Division1739
- 6 SepDComerciantes Unidos Peru Primera Division1743
UCV Moquegua
16th in Primera División · 28 pts from 29
- 18 OctWFC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1428
- 8 OctLCienciano Peru Primera Division1404
- 20 SepLJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1443
- 13 SepLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1463
- 5 SepLCusco Peru Primera Division1446
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitario | 53 /29 | 62.2 | 1% | 99% | 0% | 2nd |
| UCV Moquegua | 28 /29 | 32.9 | 0% | 0% | 65% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Universitario: creative (how F. Bustos plays) · UCV Moquegua: balanced profile (how J. Serna plays)