Primera División · Clausura - 11
Universitario 2–2 FBC Melgar
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio Monumental U Marathon, Lima
UniversitarioTeam 1701FBC MelgarTeam 1738Match story
Universitario · draw · FBC MelgarBefore kick-off: 34% · 30% · 37%
Last reading, 90+6': 1% · 99% · 1%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Alex Valera 84', 86'
We gave FBC Melgar 37% to win: it ended in a draw.
- Caín Fara 1744 −11*16'Universitario:Caín Fara 1744 −11*
- 20'Juan Escobar 1751 −10*FBC Melgar:Juan Escobar 1751 −10*
- 39'Bernardo Cuesta 1609 −18* assist Nicolas Quagliata 1741 −8*FBC Melgar:Bernardo Cuesta 1609 −18* assist Nicolas Quagliata 1741 −8*
- Piero Quispe 1790 −7* for Jorge Murrugarra 1666 −9*45'Universitario:Piero Quispe 1790 −7* for Jorge Murrugarra 1666 −9*
- 56'Cristian Bordacahar 1623 −14*FBC Melgar:Cristian Bordacahar 1623 −14*
- 61'Walter Tandazo 1739 −8*FBC Melgar:Walter Tandazo 1739 −8*
- Lisandro Alzugaray 1609 −16* for Gianluca Lapadula 1519 −16*66'Universitario:Lisandro Alzugaray 1609 −16* for Gianluca Lapadula 1519 −16*
- Edison Flores 1665 −12* for Caín Fara 1744 −11*67'Universitario:Edison Flores 1665 −12* for Caín Fara 1744 −11*
- 69'Matias Zegarra 1665 −8* for Bernardo Cuesta 1609 −18*FBC Melgar:Matias Zegarra 1665 −8* for Bernardo Cuesta 1609 −18*
- 70'Johnny Vidales 1635 −14* for Lautaro Guzmán 1684 −8*FBC Melgar:Johnny Vidales 1635 −14* for Lautaro Guzmán 1684 −8*
- 77'Jesús Alcantar 1606 −8* for Nelson Cabanillas 1759 −8*FBC Melgar:Jesús Alcantar 1606 −8* for Nelson Cabanillas 1759 −8*
- José Rivera 1681 −9* for Jairo Concha 1779 −8*82'Universitario:José Rivera 1681 −9* for Jairo Concha 1779 −8*
- Alex Valera 1816 −9* assist Horacio Calcaterra 1312 −17*84'Universitario:Alex Valera 1816 −9* assist Horacio Calcaterra 1312 −17*
- 86'Matias Zegarra 1665 −8*FBC Melgar:Matias Zegarra 1665 −8*
- Alex Valera 1816 −9* assist Edison Flores 1665 −12*86'Universitario:Alex Valera 1816 −9* assist Edison Flores 1665 −12*
- Juan Manuel Requena 1621 −8* for Horacio Calcaterra 1312 −17*90+2'Universitario:Juan Manuel Requena 1621 −8* for Horacio Calcaterra 1312 −17*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 34% · 30% · 37%(Universitario · draw · FBC Melgar)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Universitario €744K, FBC Melgar €593K.
- Primera División: A. Valera was the highest-rated forward (1825).
- FBC Melgar were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Universitario
2nd in Primera División · 49 pts from 27
- 19 SepLDeportivo Garcilaso Peru Primera Division1759
- 13 SepWAlianza Lima Peru Primera Division1739
- 6 SepDComerciantes Unidos Peru Primera Division1743
- 29 AugWUTC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1732
- 23 AugWClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1705
FBC Melgar
4th in Primera División · 46 pts from 27
- 20 SepDSport Boys Peru Primera Division1720
- 12 SepWCusco Peru Primera Division1711
- 6 SepWADT Peru Primera Division1710
- 23 AugDAlianza Lima Peru Primera Division1712
- 15 AugWClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1687
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitario | 49 /27 | 61.4 | 4% | 93% | 0% | 2nd |
| FBC Melgar | 46 /27 | 58.2 | 1% | 77% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Universitario · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1787
FBC Melgar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1749
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Universitario: creative (how Héctor Raúl Cúper plays) · FBC Melgar: balanced profile (how Miguel Ángel Rondelli plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.