UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 5
Union St. Gilloise vs Lech Poznan
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Den Dreef, Heverlee
Union St. Gilloise host Lech Poznan on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Union St. Gilloise 61%, draw 23%, Lech Poznan 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Union St. Gilloise €5.3M, Lech Poznan €2.1M.
- Pro League: A. Zorgane is the highest-rated midfielder (2321).
- Union St. Gilloise's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.5 over 180 days.
- Union St. Gilloise have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Union St. Gilloise goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.5 pts
Team Elo: Union St. Gilloise 2129 · Lech Poznan 1925
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Union St. Gilloise · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.8 (Elite) · Elo 2108
Lech Poznan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1991
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Union St. Gilloise
1st in Pro League · 29 pts from 11
- 8 NovWGenk Belgium Pro League2188
- 5 NovWCelta Vigo UEFA Europa League2088
- 31 OctWSK Beveren Belgium Pro League2043
- 25 OctWCercle Brugge Belgium Pro League1999
- 22 OctWHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League1986
Lech Poznan
1st in Ekstraklasa · 32 pts from 13
- 8 NovDZaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa1918
- 5 NovLBenfica UEFA Europa League1940
- 31 OctWWisla Krakow Ekstraklasa1930
- 25 OctWLegia Warszawa Ekstraklasa1932
- 22 OctDSunderland UEFA Europa League1933
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 10 /4 | 15.9 | 65.3 | 34.7 | 0.0 |
| Lech Poznan | 1 /4 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 17.3 | 82.7 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Union St. Gilloise: high-pressing (how David Hubert plays) · Lech Poznan: possession-based (how Niels Frederiksen plays)