Europa League

League phase after 2 of 8 matchdays, from 10,000 Monte-Carlo runs of our player-Elo model.

League phase

#	Club	Team Elo	Pld	Pts	Pred Pts	Top 8 %	Play-off %	Out %
1	Benfica	2226	2	6	18.6	87.4	12.6	0.1
2	Bournemouth	2237	2	6	18.2	84.5	15.4	0.0
3	Bayer Leverkusen	2278	2	6	17.5	78.5	21.3	0.2
4	Juventus	2244	2	6	17.4	77.3	22.5	0.2
5	Sunderland	2173	2	6	17.0	70.0	29.8	0.2
6	Beşiktaş	2226	2	6	16.3	63.1	36.6	0.3
7	Olympiakos Piraeus	2098	2	6	16.1	57.6	41.9	0.5
8	Lyon	2118	2	6	15.5	50.2	49.0	0.8
9	AC Milan	2264	2	3	14.8	47.0	51.8	1.2
10	Rennes	2132	2	4	14.0	32.3	64.1	3.6
11	Crystal Palace	2236	2	3	13.9	36.7	60.1	3.1
12	Ferencvarosi TC	1901	2	6	13.4	22.4	73.7	3.8
13	Real Sociedad	2206	2	1	12.4	16.3	77.5	6.2
14	Union St. Gilloise	2072	2	4	12.4	16.8	74.5	8.7
15	AZ Alkmaar	2066	2	3	12.4	16.2	74.5	9.4
16	Dinamo Zagreb	2020	2	4	11.9	12.2	75.1	12.7
17	Omonia Nicosia	1886	2	6	11.3	7.4	76.0	16.6
18	Red Bull Salzburg	1931	2	3	11.1	6.0	72.0	22.0
19	Sparta Praha	1921	2	4	9.7	3.5	62.2	34.2
20	Celtic	2095	2	0	9.6	2.9	61.6	35.5
21	Celta Vigo	2071	2	0	9.2	2.4	59.8	37.8
22	Marseille	2063	2	0	9.0	1.7	55.9	42.4
23	1899 Hoffenheim	2082	2	0	8.9	2.0	54.8	43.2
24	OFI	1811	2	3	8.8	1.1	51.4	47.5
25	Jagiellonia	1785	2	3	8.3	1.1	44.3	54.5
26	Anderlecht	1952	2	0	8.0	0.9	44.2	54.9
27	Lech Poznan	1935	2	0	8.0	0.5	37.6	61.9
28	Sturm Graz	1857	2	1	7.9	0.5	38.3	61.2
29	NEC Nijmegen	1805	2	1	7.6	0.5	33.5	65.9
30	Plzen	1853	2	0	7.0	0.2	28.9	70.9
31	Torreense	1585	2	3	7.0	0.2	23.2	76.7
32	Levski Sofia	1757	2	1	6.9	0.3	27.3	72.4
33	Celje	1728	2	0	6.4	0.2	21.8	78.0
34	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1807	2	1	5.7	0.1	15.2	84.7
35	Ararat-Armenia	1564	2	0	4.6	0.0	6.8	93.2
36	Lillestrom	1591	2	1	4.2	0.0	4.6	95.4

Top 8 go straight to the round of 16, 9–24 into the knockout play-off, 25–36 are out.

Provisional chances (home · draw · away) from both squads' Elo until the line-ups are confirmed. All times UTC.

Each row sums to ~100%. Columns are final league-phase positions; the dividers mark the top-8 and 9–24 cut-offs.

Club	Top 8	9–24	Out
Benfica	87%	13%	0%
Bournemouth	85%	15%	0%
Bayer Leverkusen	79%	21%	<1%
Juventus	77%	23%	<1%
Sunderland	70%	30%	<1%
Beşiktaş	63%	37%	<1%
Olympiakos Piraeus	57%	42%	<1%
Lyon	50%	49%	1%
AC Milan	47%	52%	1%
Rennes	32%	64%	4%
Crystal Palace	37%	60%	3%
Ferencvarosi TC	23%	74%	4%
Real Sociedad	16%	78%	6%
Union St. Gilloise	17%	75%	9%
AZ Alkmaar	16%	75%	9%
Dinamo Zagreb	12%	75%	13%
Omonia Nicosia	7%	76%	17%
Red Bull Salzburg	6%	72%	22%
Sparta Praha	4%	62%	34%
Celtic	3%	62%	35%
Celta Vigo	2%	60%	38%
Marseille	2%	56%	42%
1899 Hoffenheim	2%	55%	43%
OFI	1%	52%	48%
Jagiellonia	1%	44%	55%
Anderlecht	1%	44%	55%
Lech Poznan	1%	38%	62%
Sturm Graz	1%	38%	61%
NEC Nijmegen	1%	34%	66%
Plzen	<1%	29%	71%
Torreense	<1%	23%	77%
Levski Sofia	<1%	27%	72%
Celje	<1%	22%	78%
Hapoel Beer Sheva	0%	15%	85%
Ararat-Armenia	0%	7%	93%
Lillestrom	0%	5%	95%

Full position matrix below; the club column stays put as you scroll.