UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Merkur Spielarena, Dusseldorf
Union St. Gilloise host Hapoel Beer Sheva on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Union St. Gilloise 66%, draw 21%, Hapoel Beer Sheva 13%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Union St. Gilloise €3.9M, Hapoel Beer Sheva €1.1M.
- Union St. Gilloise are without 1 expected starter: O. Kričfaluši (2025).
- Ligat Ha'al: G. Mizrahi is the highest-rated defender (1990).
- Union St. Gilloise's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 over 180 days.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Union St. Gilloise goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.8 pts
Team Elo: Union St. Gilloise 2072 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1807
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: N. Chibani for O. Kričfaluši.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Union St. Gilloise · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.0 (Elite) · Elo 1909
Hapoel Beer Sheva · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1966
Absences
Union St. Gilloise
Ruled out
- K. Mac AllisterKnee Injury2330
- A. Ait El HadjOff the roster2319
- R. SykesShoulder Injury2283
- K. RodríguezMuscle Injury2105
- R. SchoofsKnock2047
- O. KričfalušiKnock2025
- I. HurteventKnock1539
- I. PavlićOff the roster1449
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ruled out
- D. BitonHeart Problems1930
- Y. StoyanovOff the roster1834
- I. NachmiasInjury1810
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Union St. Gilloise
4th in Pro League · 20 pts from 8
- 15 OctDReal Sociedad UEFA Europa League1992
- 11 OctDOH Leuven Belgium Pro League2001
- 20 SepWAntwerp Belgium Pro League2088
- 17 SepWPlzen UEFA Europa League1978
- 12 SepWLommel United Belgium Pro League2086
Hapoel Beer Sheva
4th in Ligat Ha'al · 16 pts from 7
- 18 OctWHapoel Katamon Israeli Ligat Haal1717
- 15 OctLAZ Alkmaar UEFA Europa League1856
- 10 OctWIroni Tiberias Israeli Ligat Haal1799
- 19 SepWIroni Kiryat Shmona Israeli Ligat Haal1772
- 16 SepDDinamo Zagreb UEFA Europa League1789
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 4 /2 | 12.4 | 16.8 | 74.5 | 8.7 |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 /2 | 5.7 | 0.1 | 15.2 | 84.7 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Union St. Gilloise: high-pressing (how David Hubert plays) · Hapoel Beer Sheva: creative (how Ran Kozuch plays)