Primera División · Clausura - 11
UCV Moquegua 0–2 Cienciano
Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua
UCV MoqueguaTeam 1353CiencianoTeam 1532We gave Cienciano 49% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 24% · 27% · 49%(UCV Moquegua · draw · Cienciano)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–2 had 9%.
- Average value of the starting XI: UCV Moquegua €193K, Cienciano €283K.
- All 11 of Cienciano's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
UCV Moquegua
17th in Primera División · 25 pts from 27
- 20 SepLJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1443
- 13 SepLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1463
- 5 SepLCusco Peru Primera Division1446
- 30 AugLAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1500
- 22 AugWSport Huancayo Peru Primera Division1471
Cienciano
7th in Primera División · 41 pts from 27
- 30 SepDClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1612
- 23 SepLADT Peru Primera Division1620
- 18 SepLAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana1636
- 11 SepWAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana1623
- 4 SepWFC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1588
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCV Moquegua | 25 /27 | 32.1 | 0% | 0% | 81% | 17th |
| Cienciano | 41 /27 | 51.4 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
UCV Moquegua · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 (Good) · Elo 1497
Cienciano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1663
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
UCV Moquegua: balanced profile (how Jaime César Santiago Serna Mozombite plays) · Cienciano: balanced profile (how Horacio Melgarejo plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.