Primera División · Clausura - 17
UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua
UCV Moquegua host Atletico Grau on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: UCV Moquegua 32%, draw 29%, Atletico Grau 40%.
- Average value of the expected XI: UCV Moquegua €223K, Atletico Grau €234K.
- UCV Moquegua's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.7 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. UCV Moquegua goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: UCV Moquegua 1420 · Atletico Grau 1485
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
UCV Moquegua · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1510
Atletico Grau · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1527
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
UCV Moquegua
17th in Primera División · 28 pts from 31
- 28 OctLADT Peru Primera Division1459
- 25 OctLAlianza Lima Peru Primera Division1446
- 18 OctWFC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1428
- 8 OctLCienciano Peru Primera Division1404
- 20 SepLJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1443
Atletico Grau
14th in Primera División · 34 pts from 31
- 29 OctLCienciano Peru Primera Division1468
- 23 OctDADT Peru Primera Division1495
- 18 OctLAlianza Lima Peru Primera Division1503
- 8 OctDClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1478
- 19 SepLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1504
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCV Moquegua | 28 /31 | 31.0 | 0% | 0% | 83% | 17th |
| Atletico Grau | 34 /31 | 37.3 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
UCV Moquegua: balanced profile (how J. Serna plays) · Atletico Grau: balanced profile (how G. Ameli plays)