Primera División · Clausura - 13
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua
UCV Moquegua host Alianza Lima on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: UCV Moquegua 15%, draw 22%, Alianza Lima 62%.
- Average value of the expected XI: UCV Moquegua €242K, Alianza Lima €685K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Primera División Clausura - 13: 336 points.
- Primera División: A. Duarte is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1781).
- Alianza Lima's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. UCV Moquegua goals first.
- 1–111%
- 0–211%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
- 0–37%
- 1–37%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: UCV Moquegua 1428 · Alianza Lima 1764
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
UCV Moquegua · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1546
Alianza Lima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.1 (Elite) · Elo 1849
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
UCV Moquegua
16th in Primera División · 28 pts from 29
- 18 OctWFC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1428
- 8 OctLCienciano Peru Primera Division1404
- 20 SepLJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1443
- 13 SepLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1463
- 5 SepLCusco Peru Primera Division1446
Alianza Lima
1st in Primera División · 62 pts from 29
- 18 OctWAtletico Grau Peru Primera Division1764
- 11 OctWCusco Peru Primera Division1751
- 19 SepWADT Peru Primera Division1752
- 13 SepLUniversitario Peru Primera Division1737
- 6 SepDJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1747
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCV Moquegua | 28 /29 | 32.9 | 0% | 0% | 64% | 17th |
| Alianza Lima | 62 /29 | 71.5 | 99% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
UCV Moquegua: balanced profile (how Jaime César Santiago Serna Mozombite plays) · Alianza Lima: balanced profile (how Pablo Adrián Guede Barriero plays)