UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3
Twente vs Pafos
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Twente host Pafos on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Twente 63%, draw 22%, Pafos 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Twente €3.5M, Pafos €1.3M.
- 1. Division: R. Majecki is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1991).
- Twente's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Twente goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.6 pts
Team Elo: Twente 2020 · Pafos 1799
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Twente · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2127
Pafos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1817
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Twente
5th in Eredivisie · 17 pts from 9
- 22 OctWLincoln Red Imps FC UEFA Conference League2033
- 18 OctLUtrecht Eredivisie2056
- 15 OctWFC Thun UEFA Conference League2036
- 10 OctDFortuna Sittard Eredivisie2033
- 20 SepWPSV Eindhoven Eredivisie1981
Pafos
5th in 1. Division · 11 pts from 6
- 22 OctDRiga UEFA Conference League1780
- 19 OctDApoel Nicosia Cypriot First Division1796
- 15 OctLAtalanta UEFA Conference League1800
- 11 OctWAnorthosis Cypriot First Division1799
- 18 SepLAEL Cypriot First Division1774
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 2 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 6 /2 | 13.1 | 67.7 | 32.1 | 0.2 |
| Pafos | 1 /2 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 48.4 | 50.9 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Twente: balanced profile (how J. van den Brom plays) · Pafos: balanced profile (how Sá Pinto plays)