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Conference League
League phase after 1 of 6 matchdays, from 10,000 Monte-Carlo runs of our player-Elo model.
League phase
| # | Club | Team Elo | Pld | Pts | Pred Pts | Top 8 % | Play-off % | Out % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 2383 | 1 | 3 | 14.3 | 86.6 | 13.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | Atalanta | 2187 | 1 | 3 | 14.1 | 86.5 | 13.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 2131 | 1 | 3 | 12.9 | 67.7 | 31.4 | 0.9 |
| 4 | Twente | 2005 | 1 | 3 | 12.3 | 58.8 | 39.8 | 1.4 |
| 5 | FC Copenhagen | 1926 | 1 | 3 | 12.1 | 58.1 | 40.8 | 1.1 |
| 6 | Monaco | 2132 | 1 | 3 | 12.0 | 55.2 | 43.9 | 0.9 |
| 7 | Gent | 1993 | 1 | 3 | 12.0 | 52.6 | 45.2 | 2.3 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg | 2174 | 1 | 3 | 11.8 | 50.2 | 47.5 | 2.3 |
| 9 | FC Lugano | 1976 | 1 | 3 | 11.6 | 47.5 | 49.7 | 2.8 |
| 10 | Panathinaikos | 2050 | 1 | 3 | 10.5 | 30.0 | 64.0 | 6.0 |
| 11 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1801 | 1 | 3 | 10.3 | 27.8 | 63.8 | 8.5 |
| 12 | SC Braga | 1997 | 1 | 0 | 10.1 | 26.7 | 65.5 | 7.8 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2162 | 1 | 0 | 9.8 | 25.5 | 65.3 | 9.2 |
| 14 | FC Midtjylland | 1939 | 1 | 1 | 9.6 | 23.2 | 65.6 | 11.2 |
| 15 | Universitatea Craiova | 1842 | 1 | 1 | 9.2 | 14.9 | 73.9 | 11.2 |
| 16 | Getafe | 1937 | 1 | 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 74.5 | 13.6 |
| 17 | St. Truiden | 1819 | 1 | 3 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 66.5 | 21.9 |
| 18 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 1922 | 1 | 0 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 71.2 | 16.7 |
| 19 | Brann | 1722 | 1 | 3 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 65.7 | 23.7 |
| 20 | Aarhus | 1770 | 1 | 0 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 67.0 | 22.9 |
| 21 | FC Nordsjaelland | 1868 | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 65.6 | 25.2 |
| 22 | Mjallby AIF | 1569 | 1 | 3 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 63.6 | 29.5 |
| 23 | Pafos | 1798 | 1 | 0 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 56.8 | 38.4 |
| 24 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1771 | 1 | 1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 51.3 | 45.5 |
| 25 | Riga | 1659 | 1 | 1 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 47.1 | 50.3 |
| 26 | CSKA Sofia | 1787 | 1 | 0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 40.8 | 57.4 |
| 27 | Borac Banja Luka | 1612 | 1 | 0 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 38.9 | 59.7 |
| 28 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1439 | 1 | 1 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 30.4 | 69.1 |
| 29 | Kairat Almaty | 1616 | 1 | 1 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 28.4 | 71.0 |
| 30 | FC Thun | 1666 | 1 | 0 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 25.6 | 74.0 |
| 31 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1547 | 1 | 0 | 4.7 | 0.4 | 21.6 | 78.0 |
| 32 | FK Jablonec | 1673 | 1 | 0 | 4.7 | 0.4 | 23.5 | 76.1 |
| 33 | FC Iberia 1999 | 1521 | 1 | 0 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 17.6 | 82.0 |
| 34 | KuPS | 1572 | 1 | 0 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 14.3 | 85.5 |
| 35 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1393 | 1 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 5.8 | 94.2 |
| 36 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 1141 | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 99.5 |
How the season has moved
Top 8 go straight to the round of 16, 9–24 into the knockout play-off, 25–36 are out.
Upcoming matches
Provisional chances (home · draw · away) from both squads' Elo until the line-ups are confirmed. All times UTC.
Thu 22 Oct 2026
- 14:30Kairat Almaty vs PanathinaikosConference League
- 16:45Getafe vs FC LuganoConference League
- 16:45FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC CopenhagenConference League
- 16:45FK Jablonec vs BrightonConference League
- 16:45FC Iberia 1999 vs Mjallby AIFConference League
- 16:45Kauno Žalgiris vs BrannConference League
- 16:45FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA SofiaConference League
- 16:45Pafos vs RigaConference League
- 16:45Trabzonspor vs Heart Of MidlothianConference League
- 19:00FC Midtjylland vs St. TruidenConference League
- 19:00FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk SplitConference League
- 19:00Borac Banja Luka vs KuPSConference League
- 19:00SC Braga vs GentConference League
- 19:00Monaco vs SC FreiburgConference League
- 19:00Ajax vs AtalantaConference League
Recent results
Thu 15 Oct 2026
- 19:00FC Copenhagen vs SC BragaConference League3–0
- 19:00Brighton vs Kauno ŽalgirisConference League4–0
- 19:00Twente vs FC ThunConference League1–0
- 19:00St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999Conference League2–0
- 19:00Heart Of Midlothian vs FC NordsjaellandConference League1–1
- 19:00SC Freiburg vs FK JablonecConference League3–2
- 19:00Atalanta vs PafosConference League3–1
- 16:45Gent vs AarhusConference League1–0
Finishing-position probabilities
Each row sums to ~100%. Columns are final league-phase positions; the dividers mark the top-8 and 9–24 cut-offs.
| Club | Top 8 | 9–24 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 87% | 13% | 0% |
| Atalanta | 87% | 14% | 0% |
| Trabzonspor | 68% | 32% | 1% |
| Twente | 59% | 40% | 1% |
| FC Copenhagen | 58% | 41% | 1% |
| Monaco | 55% | 44% | 1% |
| Gent | 53% | 45% | 2% |
| SC Freiburg | 50% | 47% | 2% |
| FC Lugano | 48% | 50% | 3% |
| Panathinaikos | 30% | 64% | 6% |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 28% | 64% | 8% |
| SC Braga | 27% | 66% | 8% |
| Ajax | 26% | 65% | 9% |
| FC Midtjylland | 23% | 66% | 11% |
| Universitatea Craiova | 15% | 74% | 11% |
| Getafe | 12% | 74% | 14% |
| St. Truiden | 12% | 67% | 22% |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 12% | 71% | 17% |
| Brann | 11% | 66% | 24% |
| Aarhus | 10% | 67% | 23% |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 9% | 66% | 25% |
| Mjallby AIF | 7% | 64% | 30% |
| Pafos | 5% | 57% | 38% |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 3% | 51% | 45% |
| Riga | 3% | 47% | 50% |
| CSKA Sofia | 2% | 41% | 57% |
| Borac Banja Luka | 1% | 39% | 60% |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1% | 31% | 69% |
| Kairat Almaty | 1% | 28% | 71% |
| FC Thun | <1% | 26% | 74% |
| Kauno Žalgiris | <1% | 22% | 78% |
| FK Jablonec | <1% | 24% | 76% |
| FC Iberia 1999 | <1% | 18% | 82% |
| KuPS | <1% | 14% | 86% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | 0% | 6% | 94% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0% | <1% | 100% |
Full position matrix below; the club column stays put as you scroll.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 31 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Atalanta | 22 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Trabzonspor | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Twente | 6 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FC Copenhagen | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monaco | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gent | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SC Freiburg | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FC Lugano | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Panathinaikos | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HNK Hajduk Split | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SC Braga | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ajax | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FC Midtjylland | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Universitatea Craiova | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Getafe | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| St. Truiden | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Brann | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Aarhus | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FC Nordsjaelland | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mjallby AIF | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pafos | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Riga | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CSKA Sofia | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Borac Banja Luka | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kairat Almaty | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FC Thun | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kauno Žalgiris | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FK Jablonec | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FC Iberia 1999 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| KuPS | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 6 | 8 | 16 | 61 |