UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4
Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio Algarve
Torreense host Ararat-Armenia on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Torreense 46%, draw 28%, Ararat-Armenia 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Torreense €434K, Ararat-Armenia €283K.
- Segunda Liga: Adriel is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1735).
- Bruno Pinto and K. Hovhannisyan (Ararat-Armenia) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Torreense goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.7 pts
Team Elo: Torreense 1585 · Ararat-Armenia 1562
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; Ararat-Armenia from last season's line-ups (latest 3 May 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Torreense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1397
Ararat-Armenia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1716
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Torreense
15th in Segunda Liga · 6 pts from 7
- 22 OctLFerencvarosi TC UEFA Europa League1577
- 15 OctLSunderland UEFA Europa League1577
- 10 OctLTondela Liga Portugal 21614
- 17 SepWLillestrom UEFA Europa League1592
- 11 SepDLeixoes Liga Portugal 21554
Ararat-Armenia
2nd in Premier League · 23 pts from 10
- 22 OctLAZ Alkmaar UEFA Europa League1613
- 15 OctLJagiellonia UEFA Europa League1597
- 16 SepLSparta Praha UEFA Europa League1599
- 27 AugWUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League1569
- 20 AugDUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League1557
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 3 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torreense | 3 /3 | 6.5 | 0.1 | 15.6 | 84.4 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 0 /3 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 97.0 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –