J1 League · Regular Season - 15
Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy host Nagoya Grampus on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Tokyo Verdy 39%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Tokyo Verdy €532K, Nagoya Grampus €520K.
- Home advantage makes Tokyo Verdy the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
- All 11 of Nagoya Grampus' expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Tokyo Verdy goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Tokyo Verdy 1630 · Nagoya Grampus 1644
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Tokyo Verdy · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1759
Nagoya Grampus · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.6 (Average) · Elo 1710
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Tokyo Verdy
14th in J1 League · 14 pts from 14
- 7 NovWShimizu S-pulse J1 League1649
- 1 NovWV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1620
- 24 OctWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1584
- 21 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1583
- 17 OctLFC Tokyo J1 League1549
Nagoya Grampus
13th in J1 League · 14 pts from 14
- 7 NovLKyoto Sanga J1 League1687
- 31 OctLVissel Kobe J1 League1665
- 25 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1694
- 21 OctDCerezo Osaka J1 League1677
- 17 OctWKashiwa Reysol J1 League1635
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | 14 /14 | 42.4 | 0% | 0% | 15% | 15th |
| Nagoya Grampus | 14 /14 | 44.1 | 0% | <1% | 10% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Tokyo Verdy: balanced profile (how Naoki Soma plays) · Nagoya Grampus: balanced profile (how Mihailo Petrovic plays)