J1 League · Regular Season - 10
Tokyo Verdy 0–4 FC Tokyo
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Ajinomoto Stadium, Chofu
Tokyo VerdyTeam 1530
FC TokyoTeam 1820Match story
Tokyo Verdy · draw · FC TokyoBefore kick-off: 20% · 27% · 53%
Last reading, 90+7': 0% · 0% · 100%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Alexander Scholz 41'
- Marcelo 55' (pen)
- Motoki Nagakura 68'
- Dani Gómez 90+4'
We gave FC Tokyo 53% to win: they did.
- Itsuki Someno 1577 018'
Tokyo Verdy:Itsuki Someno 1577 0 - Issei Kumatoriya 1457 0 for Yuya Fukuda 1545 −128'
Tokyo Verdy:Issei Kumatoriya 1457 0 for Yuya Fukuda 1545 −1 - 41'Alexander Scholz 1925 +23 assist Kota Tawaratsumida 1786 +35
FC Tokyo:Alexander Scholz 1925 +23 assist Kota Tawaratsumida 1786 +35 - Kazunari Ichimi 1528 −1 for Kim Hyun-Woo 1389 045'
Tokyo Verdy:Kazunari Ichimi 1528 −1 for Kim Hyun-Woo 1389 0 - 55'Marcelo 1914 +28 (pen.)
FC Tokyo:Marcelo 1914 +28 (pen.) - Yuta Arai 1546 058'
Tokyo Verdy:Yuta Arai 1546 0 - Rei Hirakawa 1597 −8* for Kosuke Saito 1568 −266'
Tokyo Verdy:Rei Hirakawa 1597 −8* for Kosuke Saito 1568 −2 - 67'Rio Omori 1541 +7 for Kashif Bangnagande 1829 +30
FC Tokyo:Rio Omori 1541 +7 for Kashif Bangnagande 1829 +30 - 67'Kein Sato 1873 +3 for Kota Tawaratsumida 1786 +35
FC Tokyo:Kein Sato 1873 +3 for Kota Tawaratsumida 1786 +35 - 68'Motoki Nagakura 1932 +27 assist Rio Omori 1541 +7
FC Tokyo:Motoki Nagakura 1932 +27 assist Rio Omori 1541 +7 - 74'Kyota Tokiwa 1881 +6 for Takahiro Ko 1877 +1*
FC Tokyo:Kyota Tokiwa 1881 +6 for Takahiro Ko 1877 +1* - Koki Morita 1622 −8* for Kanya Fujimoto 1608 −280'
Tokyo Verdy:Koki Morita 1622 −8* for Kanya Fujimoto 1608 −2 - Cho Yu-Min 1744 −11* for Kai Shibato 1614 −580'
Tokyo Verdy:Cho Yu-Min 1744 −11* for Kai Shibato 1614 −5 - Kazunari Ichimi 1528 −181'
Tokyo Verdy:Kazunari Ichimi 1528 −1 - 83'Dani Gómez 1708 +3 for Marcelo 1914 +28
FC Tokyo:Dani Gómez 1708 +3 for Marcelo 1914 +28 - 84'Fuki Yamada 1674 +1 for Soma Anzai 1864 +12
FC Tokyo:Fuki Yamada 1674 +1 for Soma Anzai 1864 +12 - 90+4'Dani Gómez 1708 +3 assist Fuki Yamada 1674 +1
FC Tokyo:Dani Gómez 1708 +3 assist Fuki Yamada 1674 +1
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 20% · 27% · 53%(Tokyo Verdy · draw · FC Tokyo)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–4 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Tokyo Verdy €367K, FC Tokyo €913K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of J1 League matchday 10: 295 points.
- FC Tokyo were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Tokyo Verdy
20th in J1 League · 4 pts from 9
- 11 OctLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1566
- 19 SepLUrawa J1 League1598
- 13 SepDJEF United Chiba J1 League1600
- 6 SepDCerezo Osaka J1 League1569
- 2 SepLVissel Kobe J1 League1554
FC Tokyo
4th in J1 League · 20 pts from 9
- 10 OctWUrawa J1 League1817
- 19 SepWNagoya Grampus J1 League1837
- 12 SepWGamba Osaka J1 League1797
- 6 SepWKyoto Sanga J1 League1806
- 2 SepDShimizu S-pulse J1 League1777
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | 4 /9 | 33.1 | 0% | 0% | 75% | 20th |
| FC Tokyo | 20 /9 | 68.0 | 16% | 64% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Tokyo Verdy · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1546

FC Tokyo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1902
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Tokyo Verdy: balanced profile (how Naoki Soma plays) · FC Tokyo: balanced profile (how Rikizo Matsuhashi plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.