J1 League · Regular Season - 12
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy host Avispa Fukuoka on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Tokyo Verdy 36%, draw 29%, Avispa Fukuoka 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Tokyo Verdy €366K, Avispa Fukuoka €412K.
- Home advantage makes Tokyo Verdy the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
- Avispa Fukuoka's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.2 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Tokyo Verdy goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–19%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Tokyo Verdy 1556 · Avispa Fukuoka 1618
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Tokyo Verdy · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1577
Avispa Fukuoka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1626
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Tokyo Verdy
20th in J1 League · 4 pts from 10
- 17 OctLFC Tokyo J1 League1556
- 11 OctLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1566
- 19 SepLUrawa J1 League1598
- 13 SepDJEF United Chiba J1 League1600
- 6 SepDCerezo Osaka J1 League1569
Avispa Fukuoka
17th in J1 League · 7 pts from 10
- 18 OctLMachida Zelvia J1 League1612
- 10 OctWFagiano Okayama J1 League1576
- 19 SepLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1585
- 12 SepLShimizu S-pulse J1 League1613
- 5 SepDMito Hollyhock J1 League1602
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | 4 /10 | 32.5 | 0% | 0% | 75% | 20th |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 7 /10 | 39.6 | 0% | 0% | 31% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Tokyo Verdy: balanced profile (how Naoki Soma plays) · Avispa Fukuoka: direct (how Shinya Tsukahara plays)