UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 5
Sunderland vs Jagiellonia
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Sunderland host Jagiellonia on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sunderland 75%, draw 16%, Jagiellonia 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sunderland €19.2M, Jagiellonia €1.1M.
- Draw chance 16%, below the UEFA Europa League average of 22% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sunderland goals first.
- 2–014%
- 1–013%
- 3–011%
- 2–19%
- 1–18%
- 3–17%
- Other scores38%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.5 pts
Team Elo: Sunderland 2176 · Jagiellonia 1792
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sunderland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 2172
Jagiellonia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1820
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sunderland
19th in Premier League · 8 pts from 10
- 8 NovWChelsea Premier League2198
- 5 NovLDinamo Zagreb UEFA Europa League2125
- 31 OctLCoventry Premier League2218
- 28 OctWBrentford England League Cup1984
- 25 OctDLeeds Premier League2215
Jagiellonia
9th in Ekstraklasa · 21 pts from 13
- 8 NovWGKS Katowice Ekstraklasa1803
- 5 NovLLevski Sofia UEFA Europa League1814
- 31 OctWWieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa1761
- 25 OctWWisla Plock Ekstraklasa1758
- 22 OctLAnderlecht UEFA Europa League1773
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 7 /4 | 14.3 | 36.3 | 62.6 | 1.2 |
| Jagiellonia | 3 /4 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 10.7 | 89.3 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sunderland: balanced profile (how R. Le Bris plays) · Jagiellonia: possession-based (how Adrian Siemieniec plays)