UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Sunderland host Dinamo Zagreb on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sunderland 59%, draw 24%, Dinamo Zagreb 17%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sunderland €17.0M, Dinamo Zagreb €3.7M.
- HNL: D. Kotarski is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2043).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sunderland goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores47%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: Sunderland 2182 · Dinamo Zagreb 2006
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sunderland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2229
Dinamo Zagreb · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2057
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sunderland
20th in Premier League · 4 pts from 7
- 22 OctDLech Poznan UEFA Europa League2058
- 18 OctLBournemouth Premier League2168
- 15 OctWTorreense UEFA Europa League2042
- 10 OctLBrighton Premier League2247
- 20 SepLManchester City Premier League2224
Dinamo Zagreb
2nd in HNL · 19 pts from 9
- 22 OctLNEC Nijmegen UEFA Europa League2068
- 18 OctWNK Slaven Belupo HNL1991
- 15 OctWAnderlecht UEFA Europa League2039
- 10 OctLHNK Hajduk Split HNL1915
- 20 SepWNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1956
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 3 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 7 /3 | 16.3 | 64.2 | 35.6 | 0.2 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 4 /3 | 9.6 | 2.0 | 61.0 | 37.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sunderland: balanced profile (how R. Le Bris plays) · Dinamo Zagreb: creative · possession-based (how Mario Kovačević plays)