UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz
Sturm Graz host Marseille on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sturm Graz 29%, draw 28%, Marseille 43%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sturm Graz €1.8M, Marseille €13.2M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sturm Graz goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: Sturm Graz 1857 · Marseille 2063
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sturm Graz · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1951
Marseille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Good) · Elo 2008
Absences
Sturm Graz
Ruled out
- S. JattaShoulder Injury1953
- O. KiteishviliCalf Injury1931
- N. WeiperInjury1930
- F. RózgaMuscle Injury1874
- N. GeyrhoferOff the roster1869
- G. MamageishviliInjury1811
- S. WłodarczykOff the roster1765
- L. GrgićKnee Injury1661
- E. SogloMuscle Injury1624
Marseille
Ruled out
- P. HøjbjergMuscle Injury2160
- D. CorneliusHip Injury2014
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sturm Graz
4th in Bundesliga · 17 pts from 9
- 18 OctWGrazer AK Austrian Bundesliga1869
- 15 OctLBournemouth UEFA Europa League1822
- 10 OctWAustria Vienna Austrian Bundesliga1851
- 20 SepLRed Bull Salzburg Austrian Bundesliga1835
- 16 SepDRennes UEFA Europa League1832
Marseille
9th in Ligue 1 · 9 pts from 7
- 18 OctWAngers Ligue 12072
- 15 OctLOlympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League2030
- 11 OctWEstac Troyes Ligue 12094
- 20 SepLParis Saint Germain Ligue 12118
- 17 SepLBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League2048
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 1 /2 | 7.9 | 0.5 | 38.3 | 61.2 |
| Marseille | 0 /2 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 55.9 | 42.4 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sturm Graz: balanced profile (how Fabio Ingolitsch plays) · Marseille: possession-based (how Bruno Génésio plays)