UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4
Sturm Graz vs Celje
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Merkur-Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz host Celje on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sturm Graz 56%, draw 25%, Celje 19%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sturm Graz €2.0M, Celje €796K.
- L. Kolar (Celje) has not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sturm Graz goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: Sturm Graz 1871 · Celje 1727
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; Celje from last season's line-ups (latest 15 March 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sturm Graz · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1960
Celje · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Elite) · Elo 1940
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sturm Graz
4th in Bundesliga · 17 pts from 9
- 22 OctWMarseille UEFA Europa League1858
- 18 OctWGrazer AK Austrian Bundesliga1869
- 15 OctLBournemouth UEFA Europa League1822
- 10 OctWAustria Vienna Austrian Bundesliga1851
- 20 SepLRed Bull Salzburg Austrian Bundesliga1835
Celje
6th in 1. SNL · 16 pts from 11
- 22 OctDRed Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League1737
- 15 OctLOmonia Nicosia UEFA Europa League1760
- 16 SepLBayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League1757
- 26 AugDSlovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League1697
- 19 AugDSlovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League1701
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 3 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 4 /3 | 9.9 | 2.0 | 63.8 | 34.2 |
| Celje | 1 /3 | 6.1 | 0.1 | 17.4 | 82.5 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sturm Graz: balanced profile (how Fabio Ingolitsch plays) · Celje: balanced profile (how Zoran Zeljković plays)