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Championship · Regular Season - 10

Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough

Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent

Stoke City crestStoke CityTeam 1969
2–3
Full time
HT 0–0
Middlesbrough crestMiddlesbroughTeam 2103

Match story

Stoke City · draw · Middlesbrough

Before kick-off: 31% · 29% · 40%

Live chances: Stoke City 0%, draw 2%, Middlesbrough 98% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 29%, Middlesbrough 40%2' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 29%, Middlesbrough 40%3' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 29%, Middlesbrough 40%4' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 29%, Middlesbrough 40%5' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 29%, Middlesbrough 39%6' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 29%, Middlesbrough 39%7' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 30%, Middlesbrough 39%8' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 30%, Middlesbrough 39%9' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 30%, Middlesbrough 39%10' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 30%, Middlesbrough 39%11' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 30%, Middlesbrough 39%12' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 30%, Middlesbrough 39%13' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 31%, Middlesbrough 39%14' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 31%, Middlesbrough 38%15' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 31%, Middlesbrough 38%16' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 31%, Middlesbrough 38%17' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 31%, Middlesbrough 38%18' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 31%, Middlesbrough 38%19' · 0–0 · Stoke City 31%, draw 32%, Middlesbrough 38%20' · 0–0 · Stoke City 30%, draw 32%, Middlesbrough 38%22' · 0–0 · Stoke City 30%, draw 32%, Middlesbrough 37%23' · 0–0 · Stoke City 30%, draw 32%, Middlesbrough 37%24' · 0–0 · Stoke City 30%, draw 33%, Middlesbrough 37%25' · 0–0 · Stoke City 30%, draw 33%, Middlesbrough 37%26' · 0–0 · Stoke City 30%, draw 33%, Middlesbrough 37%27' · 0–0 · Stoke City 30%, draw 33%, Middlesbrough 37%28' · 0–0 · Stoke City 30%, draw 33%, Middlesbrough 37%29' · 0–0 · Stoke City 30%, draw 34%, Middlesbrough 37%31' · 0–0 · Stoke City 30%, draw 34%, Middlesbrough 36%33' · 0–0 · Stoke City 29%, draw 35%, Middlesbrough 36%34' · 0–0 · Stoke City 29%, draw 35%, Middlesbrough 36%35' · 0–0 · Stoke City 29%, draw 35%, Middlesbrough 36%36' · 0–0 · Stoke City 29%, draw 36%, Middlesbrough 35%37' · 0–0 · Stoke City 29%, draw 36%, Middlesbrough 35%38' · 0–0 · Stoke City 29%, draw 36%, Middlesbrough 35%39' · 0–0 · Stoke City 29%, draw 36%, Middlesbrough 35%40' · 0–0 · Stoke City 29%, draw 37%, Middlesbrough 35%41' · 0–0 · Stoke City 28%, draw 37%, Middlesbrough 34%42' · 0–0 · Stoke City 28%, draw 37%, Middlesbrough 34%43' · 0–0 · Stoke City 28%, draw 38%, Middlesbrough 34%44' · 0–0 · Stoke City 28%, draw 38%, Middlesbrough 34%45' · 0–0 · Stoke City 28%, draw 39%, Middlesbrough 34%45+2' · 0–0 · Stoke City 28%, draw 39%, Middlesbrough 33%HT · 0–0 · Stoke City 27%, draw 40%, Middlesbrough 33%46' · 0–0 · Stoke City 27%, draw 40%, Middlesbrough 33%47' · 0–0 · Stoke City 27%, draw 40%, Middlesbrough 32%48' · 0–0 · Stoke City 27%, draw 41%, Middlesbrough 32%49' · 0–1 · Stoke City 9%, draw 23%, Middlesbrough 68%50' · 1–1 · Stoke City 27%, draw 42%, Middlesbrough 32%51' · 1–1 · Stoke City 26%, draw 42%, Middlesbrough 31%52' · 1–1 · Stoke City 26%, draw 43%, Middlesbrough 31%53' · 1–1 · Stoke City 26%, draw 43%, Middlesbrough 31%54' · 1–1 · Stoke City 26%, draw 44%, Middlesbrough 30%55' · 1–1 · Stoke City 25%, draw 45%, Middlesbrough 30%56' · 1–1 · Stoke City 25%, draw 45%, Middlesbrough 30%57' · 1–1 · Stoke City 25%, draw 46%, Middlesbrough 29%58' · 1–1 · Stoke City 25%, draw 47%, Middlesbrough 29%59' · 1–1 · Stoke City 24%, draw 47%, Middlesbrough 28%60' · 1–1 · Stoke City 24%, draw 48%, Middlesbrough 28%61' · 1–1 · Stoke City 24%, draw 49%, Middlesbrough 28%62' · 1–1 · Stoke City 23%, draw 50%, Middlesbrough 27%63' · 1–1 · Stoke City 23%, draw 50%, Middlesbrough 27%64' · 1–1 · Stoke City 23%, draw 51%, Middlesbrough 26%65' · 1–1 · Stoke City 22%, draw 52%, Middlesbrough 26%66' · 1–1 · Stoke City 22%, draw 53%, Middlesbrough 25%67' · 1–1 · Stoke City 22%, draw 53%, Middlesbrough 25%68' · 1–1 · Stoke City 21%, draw 54%, Middlesbrough 25%69' · 1–1 · Stoke City 21%, draw 55%, Middlesbrough 24%70' · 1–1 · Stoke City 20%, draw 56%, Middlesbrough 24%71' · 1–1 · Stoke City 20%, draw 57%, Middlesbrough 23%72' · 1–1 · Stoke City 20%, draw 58%, Middlesbrough 22%73' · 1–1 · Stoke City 19%, draw 59%, Middlesbrough 22%74' · 1–2 · Stoke City 3%, draw 18%, Middlesbrough 78%75' · 1–2 · Stoke City 3%, draw 18%, Middlesbrough 79%76' · 1–2 · Stoke City 3%, draw 18%, Middlesbrough 80%77' · 1–2 · Stoke City 3%, draw 17%, Middlesbrough 80%78' · 1–2 · Stoke City 2%, draw 17%, Middlesbrough 81%79' · 1–2 · Stoke City 2%, draw 16%, Middlesbrough 82%80' · 1–2 · Stoke City 2%, draw 16%, Middlesbrough 82%81' · 1–2 · Stoke City 2%, draw 15%, Middlesbrough 83%82' · 1–2 · Stoke City 2%, draw 15%, Middlesbrough 84%83' · 1–2 · Stoke City 1%, draw 14%, Middlesbrough 84%84' · 1–2 · Stoke City 1%, draw 13%, Middlesbrough 85%85' · 2–2 · Stoke City 12%, draw 74%, Middlesbrough 14%86' · 2–2 · Stoke City 11%, draw 76%, Middlesbrough 13%87' · 2–2 · Stoke City 11%, draw 78%, Middlesbrough 12%88' · 2–2 · Stoke City 10%, draw 80%, Middlesbrough 11%89' · 2–2 · Stoke City 9%, draw 81%, Middlesbrough 10%90' · 2–2 · Stoke City 8%, draw 84%, Middlesbrough 9%90+1' · 2–2 · Stoke City 7%, draw 86%, Middlesbrough 8%90+2' · 2–3 · Stoke City 0%, draw 6%, Middlesbrough 94%90+3' · 2–3 · Stoke City 0%, draw 5%, Middlesbrough 95%90+4' · 2–3 · Stoke City 0%, draw 4%, Middlesbrough 96%90+5' · 2–3 · Stoke City 0%, draw 2%, Middlesbrough 98%

Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 2% · 98%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Middlesbrough 40% to win: they did.

  1. 48'Middlesbrough:Callum Brittain 2130 +28 assist Amario Cozier-Duberry 1971 +40
  2. 50'Stoke City:Neto Borges 2102 +30 (own goal)
  3. 51'Middlesbrough:Sebastian Berhalter 2212 +5
  4. 64'Middlesbrough:Riley McGree 2050 +3 for Sebastian Berhalter 2212 +5
  5. 64'Middlesbrough:Tommy Conway 2066 +4 for Jeremy Sarmiento 2016 +14
  6. 67'Stoke City:George Hirst 2057 −3 for Lamine Cissé 1893 0
  7. 67'Stoke City:Justin Devenny 1906 0 for Bae Jun-ho 1860 −8*
  8. 68'Stoke City:Luke Graham 1932 0
  9. 73'Middlesbrough:will lankshear 2028 +34
  10. 77'Middlesbrough:Kyle Joseph 2054 +2 for will lankshear 2028 +34
  11. 78'Middlesbrough:Max Arfsten 2044 +2 for Amario Cozier-Duberry 1971 +40
  12. 79'Stoke City:Bosun Lawal 1877 0 for Junior Tchamadeu 1931 0
  13. 79'Stoke City:Róbert Boženík 1736 0 for El Hadji Soumare 1848 0
  14. 79'Stoke City:Luca Bombino 2090 −1 for Eric Junior Bocat 1970 −2
  15. 85'Stoke City:Róbert Boženík 1736 0 assist George Hirst 2057 −3
  16. 90+1'Middlesbrough:Neto Borges 2102 +30

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-3Formations3-4-2-1
GV. Johansson2083−11
DB. Wilmot2046−9
DJ. Tchamadeu19310
DL. Graham19320
MB. Johnson2061−10
MEl Hadji Djibril Soumaré18480
ME. Galbraith2088−12
ME. Bocat1970−2
FJ. McGlynn2117−14
FL. Cissé18930
FBae Jun-Ho1860−8*
CM. Robins1977−5
GR. Vítek2045+14
DL. Ayling2037+32
DA. Phillips1983+16
DA. Malanda2167+22
MC. Brittain2130+28
MS. Berhalter2212+5
MA. Morris2122+30
MNeto Borges2102+30
MA. Cozier-Duberry1971+40
MJ. Sarmiento2016+14
FW. Lankshear2028+34
CK. Hellberg2137+19
Before kick-off: 31% · 29% · 40%(Stoke City · draw · Middlesbrough)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–3 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Stoke City €3.1M, Middlesbrough €4.3M.
  • Stoke City were without 1 expected starter: M. Talovierov (1978).
  • Stoke City were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Stoke City

4th in Championship · 16 pts from 9

  • 10 OctWBolton 1975
  • 19 SepWSheffield Utd 1938
  • 12 SepWWatford 1904
  • 8 SepDCardiff 1909
  • 5 SepWCharlton 1856

Middlesbrough

2nd in Championship · 18 pts from 9

  • 10 OctWWolves 2042
  • 19 SepDBirmingham 2012
  • 15 SepDMillwall 2032
  • 12 SepWNorwich 2022
  • 8 SepLCrystal Palace 2014

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Stoke City16 /967.22%14%1%8th
Middlesbrough18 /976.514%56%0%3rd
Stoke City
Middlesbrough

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn

Stoke City · +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2131

S. Berhalter
S. Berhalter

Middlesbrough · +5.4 (Good) · Elo 2207

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Mark Gordon Robins

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Kim Alexander Hellberg

Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Stoke City: balanced profile (how Mark Gordon Robins plays) · Middlesbrough: possession-based (how Kim Alexander Hellberg plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.