Championship · Regular Season - 16
Stoke City vs Birmingham
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on Trent
Stoke City host Birmingham on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Championship); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Stoke City 36%, draw 29%, Birmingham 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Stoke City €3.3M, Birmingham €4.5M.
- Home advantage makes Stoke City the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
- Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Stoke City goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.6 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Stoke City 2009 · Birmingham 2080
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Stoke City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2159
Birmingham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2092
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Stoke City
3rd in Championship · 29 pts from 15
- 7 NovWPortsmouth England Championship1994
- 3 NovWBlackburn England Championship1986
- 31 OctWPreston England Championship1987
- 24 OctDBristol City England Championship2006
- 17 OctWDerby England Championship1978
Birmingham
1st in Championship · 29 pts from 15
- 7 NovWSwansea England Championship2065
- 3 NovWMillwall England Championship2046
- 31 OctWLincoln England Championship2044
- 24 OctLCardiff England Championship2078
- 17 OctWQPR England Championship2049
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 29 /15 | 73.4 | 5% | 29% | 0% | 6th |
| Birmingham | 29 /15 | 78.7 | 17% | 59% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Stoke City: balanced profile (how M. Robins plays) · Birmingham: possession-based (how Chris Davies plays)