Primera División · Clausura - 12
Sporting Cristal 4–2 Comerciantes Unidos
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima
Sporting CristalTeam 1651Comerciantes UnidosTeam 1522- Luis Iberico 35', 64'
- Hernán Barcos 71', 90+4'
- Josuee Herrera 56'
- Matías Eric Sen 84' (pen)
We gave Sporting Cristal 49% to win: they did.
- Luis Iberico –35'Sporting Cristal:Luis Iberico –
- 39'Agustín Rodríguez – for Alexis Arias –Comerciantes Unidos:Agustín Rodríguez – for Alexis Arias –
- 45'Josuee Herrera – for Yimy Gamero –Comerciantes Unidos:Josuee Herrera – for Yimy Gamero –
- Cristiano –51'Sporting Cristal:Cristiano –
- 56'Josuee Herrera – assist Rodrigo Vilca –Comerciantes Unidos:Josuee Herrera – assist Rodrigo Vilca –
- Hernán Barcos – for Agustín Álvarez –63'Sporting Cristal:Hernán Barcos – for Agustín Álvarez –
- Martín Távara – for Michael Hoyos –63'Sporting Cristal:Martín Távara – for Michael Hoyos –
- Luis Iberico – assist Santiago González –64'Sporting Cristal:Luis Iberico – assist Santiago González –
- Hernán Barcos – assist Martín Távara –71'Sporting Cristal:Hernán Barcos – assist Martín Távara –
- Luis Abram – for Maxloren Castro –73'Sporting Cristal:Luis Abram – for Maxloren Castro –
- 78'Thiago Alessandro Salinas Melgar – for Rodrigo Vilca –Comerciantes Unidos:Thiago Alessandro Salinas Melgar – for Rodrigo Vilca –
- 84'Matías Eric Sen – (pen.)Comerciantes Unidos:Matías Eric Sen – (pen.)
- 84'Maximiliano Pérez – for Jean Olivares –Comerciantes Unidos:Maximiliano Pérez – for Jean Olivares –
- 84'Óscar Pinto – for Jose Antonio·Parodi –Comerciantes Unidos:Óscar Pinto – for Jose Antonio·Parodi –
- Hernán Barcos – assist Yoshimar Yotún –90+4'Sporting Cristal:Hernán Barcos – assist Yoshimar Yotún –
- Juan Gonzalez – for Luis Iberico –90+6'Sporting Cristal:Juan Gonzalez – for Luis Iberico –
- Gabriel – for Leandro Sosa –90+6'Sporting Cristal:Gabriel – for Leandro Sosa –
Before kick-off (provisional): 49% · 27% · 24%(Sporting Cristal · draw · Comerciantes Unidos)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 4–2 had 1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sporting Cristal €686K, Comerciantes Unidos €327K.
- Style contrast in attacking (Primera División): Sporting Cristal ranked #4 of 18, Comerciantes Unidos #18.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sporting Cristal
9th in Primera División · 41 pts from 28
- 11 OctWUTC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1673
- 19 SepWAtletico Grau Peru Primera Division1654
- 13 SepWUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1642
- 6 SepWClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1620
- 30 AugLSport Boys Peru Primera Division1642
Comerciantes Unidos
14th in Primera División · 31 pts from 28
- 10 OctDJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1509
- 18 SepLAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1524
- 12 SepLSport Huancayo Peru Primera Division1550
- 6 SepDUniversitario Peru Primera Division1536
- 28 AugLFC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1539
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 41 /28 | 50.4 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 9th |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 31 /28 | 37.7 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sporting Cristal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1634
Comerciantes Unidos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1754
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sporting Cristal: balanced profile (how Roberto Orlando Mosquera Vera plays) · Comerciantes Unidos: low-volume (how José Eugenio Hernández Sarmiento plays)