Primera División · Clausura - 14
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima
Sporting Cristal host Alianza Lima on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sporting Cristal 30%, draw 29%, Alianza Lima 42%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sporting Cristal €685K, Alianza Lima €685K.
- Primera División: A. Duarte is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1781).
- Alianza Lima's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 over 180 days.
- Sporting Cristal have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sporting Cristal goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Sporting Cristal 1675 · Alianza Lima 1764
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sporting Cristal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1671
Alianza Lima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.1 (Elite) · Elo 1849
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sporting Cristal
8th in Primera División · 44 pts from 29
- 18 OctWComerciantes Unidos Peru Primera Division1675
- 11 OctWUTC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1673
- 19 SepWAtletico Grau Peru Primera Division1654
- 13 SepWUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1642
- 6 SepWClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1620
Alianza Lima
1st in Primera División · 62 pts from 29
- 18 OctWAtletico Grau Peru Primera Division1764
- 11 OctWCusco Peru Primera Division1751
- 19 SepWADT Peru Primera Division1752
- 13 SepLUniversitario Peru Primera Division1737
- 6 SepDJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1747
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 44 /29 | 52.0 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 6th |
| Alianza Lima | 62 /29 | 71.5 | 99% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sporting Cristal: balanced profile (how Roberto Orlando Mosquera Vera plays) · Alianza Lima: balanced profile (how Pablo Adrián Guede Barriero plays)