UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5
Sporting CP vs Manchester United
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Sporting CP host Manchester United on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sporting CP 35%, draw 29%, Manchester United 36%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sporting CP €12.7M, Manchester United €34.9M.
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Champions League average of 22% this round.
- Sporting CP's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sporting CP goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- 2–28%
- 0–16%
- 1–06%
- Other scores51%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.6 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Sporting CP 2210 · Manchester United 2332
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sporting CP · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 2302
Manchester United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2419
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sporting CP
3rd in Primeira Liga · 24 pts from 11
- 7 NovWMoreirense Primeira Liga2195
- 3 NovWShakhtar Donetsk UEFA Champions League2206
- 30 OctWCasa Pia Primeira Liga2129
- 25 OctLAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga2140
- 21 OctLLask Linz UEFA Champions League2280
Manchester United
18th in Premier League · 8 pts from 10
- 8 NovDAston Villa Premier League2365
- 3 NovWAS Roma UEFA Champions League2311
- 31 OctLChelsea Premier League2344
- 25 OctLBournemouth Premier League2315
- 21 OctLComo UEFA Champions League2368
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 9 /4 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 87.3 | 4.3 |
| Manchester United | 6 /4 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 80.9 | 12.3 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sporting CP: possession-based · creative (how Paulo Fonseca plays) · Manchester United: creative (how Michael Carrick plays)