UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 5
Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · epet ARENA, Prague
Sparta Praha host AZ Alkmaar on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sparta Praha 33%, draw 29%, AZ Alkmaar 38%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sparta Praha €1.8M, AZ Alkmaar €4.7M.
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Europa League average of 22% this round.
- Only 1 of AZ Alkmaar's expected starters is past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sparta Praha goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–28%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–07%
- 2–27%
- Other scores48%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Sparta Praha 1896 · AZ Alkmaar 2042
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sparta Praha · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1921
AZ Alkmaar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.3 (Good) · Elo 2128
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sparta Praha
4th in Czech Liga · 24 pts from 14
- 8 NovDPlzen Czech Liga1869
- 5 NovLBournemouth UEFA Europa League1863
- 1 NovDBohemians 1905 Czech Liga1858
- 25 OctWSlovácko Czech Liga1827
- 22 OctLOlympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League1819
AZ Alkmaar
5th in Eredivisie · 23 pts from 12
- 8 NovWGroningen Eredivisie2045
- 5 NovLJuventus UEFA Europa League2097
- 31 OctLAjax Eredivisie2096
- 25 OctLTwente Eredivisie2093
- 22 OctWArarat-Armenia UEFA Europa League1999
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Praha | 4 /4 | 7.9 | 0.3 | 34.2 | 65.5 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 6 /4 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 78.7 | 10.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sparta Praha: possession-based (how B. Priske plays) · AZ Alkmaar: balanced profile (how Leeroy Echteld plays)