J1 League · Regular Season - 14
Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 04:00 UTC · IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka
Shimizu S-pulse host Tokyo Verdy on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Shimizu S-pulse 47%, draw 28%, Tokyo Verdy 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Shimizu S-pulse €485K, Tokyo Verdy €404K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of J1 League matchday 14: 83 points.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Shimizu S-pulse goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Shimizu S-pulse 1655 · Tokyo Verdy 1572
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Shimizu S-pulse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1684
Tokyo Verdy · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1577
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Shimizu S-pulse
11th in J1 League · 14 pts from 11
- 21 OctLMachida Zelvia J1 League1650
- 17 OctDGamba Osaka J1 League1669
- 11 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1672
- 19 SepWJEF United Chiba J1 League1662
- 12 SepWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1609
Tokyo Verdy
20th in J1 League · 5 pts from 11
- 21 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1590
- 17 OctLFC Tokyo J1 League1556
- 11 OctLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1566
- 19 SepLUrawa J1 League1598
- 13 SepDJEF United Chiba J1 League1600
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | 14 /11 | 46.4 | 0% | <1% | 7% | 14th |
| Tokyo Verdy | 5 /11 | 33.5 | 0% | 0% | 69% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Shimizu S-pulse: balanced profile (how Takayuki Yoshida plays) · Tokyo Verdy: balanced profile (how Naoki Soma plays)