J1 League · Regular Season - 11
Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka
Shimizu S-pulse host Machida Zelvia on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Shimizu S-pulse 24%, draw 27%, Machida Zelvia 49%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Shimizu S-pulse €519K, Machida Zelvia €1.3M.
- J1 League: K. Tani is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2043).
- Style contrast in dribbling (J1 League): Shimizu S-pulse rank #3 of 23, Machida Zelvia #22.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Shimizu S-pulse goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–29%
- 0–08%
- 2–16%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Shimizu S-pulse 1664 · Machida Zelvia 1899
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Shimizu S-pulse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1698
Machida Zelvia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1962
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Shimizu S-pulse
10th in J1 League · 14 pts from 10
- 17 OctDGamba Osaka J1 League1669
- 11 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1672
- 19 SepWJEF United Chiba J1 League1662
- 12 SepWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1609
- 6 SepLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1610
Machida Zelvia
2nd in J1 League · 23 pts from 10
- 18 OctWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1919
- 15 OctWTampines Rovers AFC Cup1726
- 10 OctWKyoto Sanga J1 League1882
- 20 SepLKashiwa Reysol J1 League1902
- 12 SepDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1904
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | 14 /10 | 48.3 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 11th |
| Machida Zelvia | 23 /10 | 73.1 | 36% | 85% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Shimizu S-pulse: balanced profile (how Takayuki Yoshida plays) · Machida Zelvia: direct (how Go Kuroda plays)