UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London
Shakhtar Donetsk host Fenerbahçe on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Shakhtar Donetsk 24%, draw 27%, Fenerbahçe 50%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Shakhtar Donetsk €5.4M, Fenerbahçe €7.4M.
- Premier League: D. Riznyk is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2136).
- Süper Lig: Ederson is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2363).
- Fenerbahçe's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Shakhtar Donetsk goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–29%
- 0–07%
- 1–06%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.9 pts
Team Elo: Shakhtar Donetsk 1960 · Fenerbahçe 2246
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Shakhtar Donetsk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2140
Fenerbahçe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.5 (Good) · Elo 2336
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Shakhtar Donetsk
1st in Premier League · 29 pts from 12
- 8 NovDDynamo Kyiv Ukraine Premier League2018
- 3 NovLSporting CP UEFA Champions League2038
- 30 OctWObolon'-Brovar Ukraine Premier League1922
- 24 OctDZorya Luhansk Ukraine Premier League1914
- 21 OctLInter UEFA Champions League2056
Fenerbahçe
6th in Süper Lig · 19 pts from 11
- 8 NovWÇorum FK Turkey Super Lig2198
- 4 NovWLiverpool UEFA Champions League2177
- 31 OctLGöztepe Turkey Super Lig2192
- 26 OctLGalatasaray Turkey Super Lig2228
- 20 OctDSlavia Praha UEFA Champions League2280
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 /4 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 29.5 | 70.4 |
| Fenerbahçe | 5 /4 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 74.3 | 22.9 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Shakhtar Donetsk: possession-based · dribble-heavy (how Arda Turan plays) · Fenerbahçe: shot-heavy · creative (how Emre Belözoğlu plays)