UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2
Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 AEK Athens FC
Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London
Shakhtar DonetskTeam 1993AEK Athens FCTeam 2137- Pedrinho 34' (pen)
- Vinícius Tobias 80'
- Gleiker Mendoza 86'
- Lovro Majer 28'
We gave AEK Athens FC 38% to win: Shakhtar Donetsk won.
- 18'Lovro Majer 2055 −5AEK Athens FC:Lovro Majer 2055 −5
- 28'Lovro Majer 2055 −5 assist Stavros Pilios 2169 −13AEK Athens FC:Lovro Majer 2055 −5 assist Stavros Pilios 2169 −13
- Pedrinho 2073 +34 (pen.)34'Shakhtar Donetsk:Pedrinho 2073 +34 (pen.)
- 42'Harold Moukoudi 2174 −14AEK Athens FC:Harold Moukoudi 2174 −14
- Marlon Gomes 2033 +1854'Shakhtar Donetsk:Marlon Gomes 2033 +18
- 61'Răzvan Marin 2144 −12AEK Athens FC:Răzvan Marin 2144 −12
- Isaque for Pedrinho 2073 +3463'Shakhtar Donetsk:Isaque for Pedrinho 2073 +34
- Gleiker Mendoza 1739 +24* for Newerton 1995 +1663'Shakhtar Donetsk:Gleiker Mendoza 1739 +24* for Newerton 1995 +16
- 71'João Mário 1902 −6 for Lovro Majer 2055 −5AEK Athens FC:João Mário 1902 −6 for Lovro Majer 2055 −5
- 71'Mijat Gaćinović 1914 −4 for Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador 1877 0AEK Athens FC:Mijat Gaćinović 1914 −4 for Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador 1877 0
- 78'Kaan Kairinen 2064 −1 for Milan Vitális 2094 −5AEK Athens FC:Kaan Kairinen 2064 −1 for Milan Vitális 2094 −5
- 79'Barnabás Varga 2114 −12* for Luka Jovic 2133 −9AEK Athens FC:Barnabás Varga 2114 −12* for Luka Jovic 2133 −9
- Vinícius Tobias 2071 +54 assist Alisson 2070 +5280'Shakhtar Donetsk:Vinícius Tobias 2071 +54 assist Alisson 2070 +52
- Egor Nazaryna 1922 +1 for Marlon Gomes 2033 +1881'Shakhtar Donetsk:Egor Nazaryna 1922 +1 for Marlon Gomes 2033 +18
- 83'Oleksandr Zubkov 2202 −3 for Răzvan Marin 2144 −12AEK Athens FC:Oleksandr Zubkov 2202 −3 for Răzvan Marin 2144 −12
- Gleiker Mendoza 1739 +24* assist Isaque86'Shakhtar Donetsk:Gleiker Mendoza 1739 +24* assist Isaque
- Luca Meirelles 1717 +4 for Kauã Elias 2043 +1987'Shakhtar Donetsk:Luca Meirelles 1717 +4 for Kauã Elias 2043 +19
- Lucas Ferreira 1853 −7* for Alisson 2070 +5287'Shakhtar Donetsk:Lucas Ferreira 1853 −7* for Alisson 2070 +52
- 90'Barnabás Varga 2114 −12*AEK Athens FC:Barnabás Varga 2114 −12*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 33% · 29% · 38%(Shakhtar Donetsk · draw · AEK Athens FC)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 3–1 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Shakhtar Donetsk €6.1M, AEK Athens FC €4.9M.
- Home advantage made Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite: it added 9 points to their win chance.
- Premier League: D. Riznyk was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2165).
- Super League 1: L. Jović was the highest-rated forward (2142).
- AEK Athens FC's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Shakhtar Donetsk
1st in Premier League · 21 pts from 8
- 9 OctWVeres Rivne Ukraine Premier League2055
- 20 SepWLNZ Cherkasy Ukraine Premier League1967
- 14 SepWChornomorets Ukraine Premier League1924
- 10 SepDPSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League2001
- 5 SepWKarpaty Ukraine Premier League1959
AEK Athens FC
2nd in Super League 1 · 14 pts from 6
- 10 OctWOFI Greece Super League2078
- 20 SepWVolos NFC Greece Super League2039
- 13 SepDAsteras Tripolis Greece Super League2063
- 8 SepWLask Linz UEFA Champions League2092
- 5 SepWAris Thessalonikis Greece Super League2089
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 /1 | 7.8 | 1.4 | 32.4 | 66.2 |
| AEK Athens FC | 3 /1 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 47.5 | 49.0 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Shakhtar Donetsk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 2107
AEK Athens FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 2236
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Shakhtar Donetsk: possession-based · dribble-heavy (how Arda Turan plays) · AEK Athens FC: creative · possession-based (how Marko Nikolić plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.