UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1
SC Freiburg 3–2 FK Jablonec
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg
SC FreiburgTeam 2099
FK JablonecTeam 1653Match story
SC Freiburg · draw · FK JablonecBefore kick-off: 79% · 14% · 7%
Last reading, 90+5': 98% · 2% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- V. Grifo 15'
- D. Pavlovic 53' (og)
- M. Eggestein 65'
We gave SC Freiburg 79% to win: they did.
- 14'N. Tekijaski 1761 −4
FK Jablonec:N. Tekijaski 1761 −4 - V. Grifo 2133 +515'
SC Freiburg:V. Grifo 2133 +5 - 28'A. Rusek 1641 −1 assist J. Slama 1711 −2
FK Jablonec:A. Rusek 1641 −1 assist J. Slama 1711 −2 - D. Pavlovic 1754 −2 (own goal)53'
SC Freiburg:D. Pavlovic 1754 −2 (own goal) - I. Matanovic 2318 +1 for L. Holer 2089 −159'
SC Freiburg:I. Matanovic 2318 +1 for L. Holer 2089 −1 - J. Makengo 2264 +2 for C. Gunter 1987 −9*59'
SC Freiburg:J. Makengo 2264 +2 for C. Gunter 1987 −9* - 63'N. Okeke 1526 0
FK Jablonec:N. Okeke 1526 0 - M. Eggestein 2301 +4 assist L. Kubler 2072 −265'
SC Freiburg:M. Eggestein 2301 +4 assist L. Kubler 2072 −2 - 66'G. Kuol 1564 0 for S. Alioum 1605 0
FK Jablonec:G. Kuol 1564 0 for S. Alioum 1605 0 - 66'S. Nebyla 1787 −2 for N. Okeke 1526 0
FK Jablonec:S. Nebyla 1787 −2 for N. Okeke 1526 0 - P. Lienhart 2330 −2 for M. Rosenfelder 1906 +5*71'
SC Freiburg:P. Lienhart 2330 −2 for M. Rosenfelder 1906 +5* - K. Goto 1996 +1 for C. Irie 1737 +1771'
SC Freiburg:K. Goto 1996 +1 for C. Irie 1737 +17 - P. Osterhage 2171 +1*72'
SC Freiburg:P. Osterhage 2171 +1* - 76'D. Holly 1656 0 for A. Rusek 1641 −1
FK Jablonec:D. Holly 1656 0 for A. Rusek 1641 −1 - 76'D. Soucek 1584 −1 for R. Sedlacek 1749 −2
FK Jablonec:D. Soucek 1584 −1 for R. Sedlacek 1749 −2 - 77'D. Holly 1656 0
FK Jablonec:D. Holly 1656 0 - 84'J. Chramosta 1360 −15* for M. Polidar 1732 −9*
FK Jablonec:J. Chramosta 1360 −15* for M. Polidar 1732 −9* - P. Treu 2289 0 for L. Kubler 2072 −284'
SC Freiburg:P. Treu 2289 0 for L. Kubler 2072 −2 - 90+3'G. Kuol 1564 0
FK Jablonec:G. Kuol 1564 0
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 79% · 14% · 7%(SC Freiburg · draw · FK Jablonec)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%); the result 3–2 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: SC Freiburg €7.5M, FK Jablonec €661K.
- Draw chance was 13%, below the UEFA Europa Conference League average of 23% this round.
- SC Freiburg were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
SC Freiburg
1st in Bundesliga · 13 pts from 5
- 11 OctWFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga2249
- 19 SepDEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2245
- 12 SepWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga2226
- 5 SepWSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2222
- 30 AugWWerder Bremen Bundesliga2195
FK Jablonec
6th in Czech Liga · 17 pts from 10
- 10 OctWZbrojovka Brno Czech Liga1694
- 20 SepDZlin Czech Liga1652
- 12 SepLSparta Praha Czech Liga1711
- 9 SepWBaník Ostrava Czech Liga1678
- 6 SepLSlovan Liberec Czech Liga1716
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 0 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 0 /0 | 11.3 | 47.5 | 48.3 | 4.1 |
| FK Jablonec | 0 /0 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 26.5 | 72.6 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

SC Freiburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 2296

FK Jablonec · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1751
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
SC Freiburg: balanced profile (how Julian Schuster plays) · FK Jablonec: balanced profile (how Luboš Kozel plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.