J1 League · Regular Season - 12
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Shimizu S-pulse on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 57%, draw 24%, Shimizu S-pulse 18%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sanfrecce Hiroshima €1.5M, Shimizu S-pulse €519K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (J1 League): Sanfrecce Hiroshima rank #21 of 23, Shimizu S-pulse #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1863 · Shimizu S-pulse 1664
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 1913
Shimizu S-pulse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1698
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1st in J1 League · 23 pts from 10
- 17 OctWKyoto Sanga J1 League1847
- 11 OctWTokyo Verdy J1 League1829
- 19 SepWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1821
- 12 SepWCerezo Osaka J1 League1811
- 6 SepLFagiano Okayama J1 League1853
Shimizu S-pulse
10th in J1 League · 14 pts from 10
- 17 OctDGamba Osaka J1 League1669
- 11 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1672
- 19 SepWJEF United Chiba J1 League1662
- 12 SepWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1609
- 6 SepLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1610
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 23 /10 | 69.9 | 20% | 71% | 0% | 1st |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 14 /10 | 48.3 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sanfrecce Hiroshima: creative · shot-heavy (how Bartosch Gaul plays) · Shimizu S-pulse: balanced profile (how Takayuki Yoshida plays)