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J1 League · Regular Season - 10

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–0 Kyoto Sanga

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima crestSanfrecce HiroshimaTeam 1877
3–0
Full time
HT 0–0
Kyoto Sanga crestKyoto SangaTeam 1531

Match story

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · draw · Kyoto Sanga

Before kick-off: 70% · 19% · 11%

Live chances: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0% at 90+4'1' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 70%, draw 19%, Kyoto Sanga 11%2' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 70%, draw 19%, Kyoto Sanga 11%3' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 70%, draw 19%, Kyoto Sanga 12%4' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 69%, draw 19%, Kyoto Sanga 12%5' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 69%, draw 19%, Kyoto Sanga 12%6' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 69%, draw 19%, Kyoto Sanga 12%7' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 69%, draw 20%, Kyoto Sanga 12%8' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 68%, draw 20%, Kyoto Sanga 12%9' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 68%, draw 20%, Kyoto Sanga 12%10' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 68%, draw 20%, Kyoto Sanga 12%11' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 68%, draw 20%, Kyoto Sanga 12%12' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 67%, draw 21%, Kyoto Sanga 12%13' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 67%, draw 21%, Kyoto Sanga 12%14' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 67%, draw 21%, Kyoto Sanga 12%15' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 66%, draw 21%, Kyoto Sanga 12%16' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 66%, draw 21%, Kyoto Sanga 12%17' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 66%, draw 22%, Kyoto Sanga 13%18' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 66%, draw 22%, Kyoto Sanga 13%19' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 65%, draw 22%, Kyoto Sanga 13%20' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 65%, draw 22%, Kyoto Sanga 13%21' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 65%, draw 22%, Kyoto Sanga 13%22' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 64%, draw 23%, Kyoto Sanga 13%23' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 64%, draw 23%, Kyoto Sanga 13%24' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 64%, draw 23%, Kyoto Sanga 13%25' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 63%, draw 23%, Kyoto Sanga 13%26' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 63%, draw 24%, Kyoto Sanga 13%27' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 63%, draw 24%, Kyoto Sanga 13%28' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 63%, draw 24%, Kyoto Sanga 13%29' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 62%, draw 24%, Kyoto Sanga 13%30' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 62%, draw 25%, Kyoto Sanga 13%31' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 61%, draw 25%, Kyoto Sanga 13%32' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 61%, draw 25%, Kyoto Sanga 14%33' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 61%, draw 26%, Kyoto Sanga 14%34' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 60%, draw 26%, Kyoto Sanga 14%35' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 60%, draw 26%, Kyoto Sanga 14%36' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 60%, draw 27%, Kyoto Sanga 14%37' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 59%, draw 27%, Kyoto Sanga 14%38' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 59%, draw 27%, Kyoto Sanga 14%39' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 58%, draw 28%, Kyoto Sanga 14%40' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 58%, draw 28%, Kyoto Sanga 14%41' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 58%, draw 28%, Kyoto Sanga 14%42' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 57%, draw 29%, Kyoto Sanga 14%43' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 57%, draw 29%, Kyoto Sanga 14%44' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 56%, draw 30%, Kyoto Sanga 14%45' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 56%, draw 30%, Kyoto Sanga 14%45+1' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 55%, draw 30%, Kyoto Sanga 14%45+2' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 55%, draw 31%, Kyoto Sanga 14%45+3' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 54%, draw 31%, Kyoto Sanga 14%45+4' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 54%, draw 32%, Kyoto Sanga 14%45+5' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 54%, draw 32%, Kyoto Sanga 14%HT · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 54%, draw 32%, Kyoto Sanga 14%47' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 54%, draw 32%, Kyoto Sanga 14%48' · 0–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 53%, draw 32%, Kyoto Sanga 14%49' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 3%50' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 3%51' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 3%52' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 3%53' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 3%54' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 3%55' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 3%56' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%57' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%58' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%59' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%60' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 86%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%61' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 86%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%62' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 86%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%63' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 86%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%64' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 86%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%65' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 86%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%66' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 86%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%67' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 86%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%68' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 86%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%69' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 86%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%70' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 87%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%71' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 87%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 2%72' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 87%, draw 12%, Kyoto Sanga 1%73' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 87%, draw 11%, Kyoto Sanga 1%74' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 87%, draw 11%, Kyoto Sanga 1%75' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 88%, draw 11%, Kyoto Sanga 1%76' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 88%, draw 11%, Kyoto Sanga 1%77' · 1–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 88%, draw 11%, Kyoto Sanga 1%78' · 2–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 99%, draw 1%, Kyoto Sanga 0%79' · 2–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 99%, draw 1%, Kyoto Sanga 0%80' · 2–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 99%, draw 1%, Kyoto Sanga 0%81' · 2–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 99%, draw 1%, Kyoto Sanga 0%82' · 2–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 99%, draw 1%, Kyoto Sanga 0%83' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%84' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%85' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%86' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%87' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%88' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%89' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%90' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%90+1' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%90+2' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%90+3' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%90+4' · 3–0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 100%, draw 0%, Kyoto Sanga 0%

Last reading, 90+4': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Sanfrecce Hiroshima 70% to win: they did.

  1. 31'Kyoto Sanga:Kyo Sato 1723 −11
  2. 48'Sanfrecce Hiroshima:Daiki Suga 1735 +29 assist Shunki Higashi 1974 +18
  3. 55'Kyoto Sanga:Alex Souza 1652 −2 for Ryuma Nakano 1568 0
  4. 55'Kyoto Sanga:Temma Matsuda 1636 −5 for Takaaki Shichi 1521 −4
  5. 63'Sanfrecce Hiroshima:Mutsuki Kato 1855 +7 for Shun Ayukawa 1563 +16
  6. 63'Sanfrecce Hiroshima:Taishi Matsumoto 1876 +2 for Yotaro Nakajima 1778 +10
  7. 64'Sanfrecce Hiroshima:Kim Ju-sung 1859 +3 for Daiki Suga 1735 +29
  8. 67'Sanfrecce Hiroshima:Sébastien Haller 1842 +5
  9. 72'Kyoto Sanga:Marco Túlio 1741 −3 for Takumi Kato 1439 −8*
  10. 72'Kyoto Sanga:João Pedro 1729 −10* for Sung-jun Yoon 1495 0
  11. 73'Sanfrecce Hiroshima:Takuma Asano 1783 +3 for Sébastien Haller 1842 +5
  12. 78'Sanfrecce Hiroshima:Akito Suzuki 1978 +17 assist Takuma Asano 1783 +3
  13. 80'Kyoto Sanga:Takuji Yonemoto 1372 −16* for Hiroto Morooka 1449 −2
  14. 82'Sanfrecce Hiroshima:Mutsuki Kato 1855 +7 assist Akito Suzuki 1978 +17
  15. 86'Sanfrecce Hiroshima:Takumu Kawamura 1844 −8* for Akito Suzuki 1978 +17

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations4-2-3-1
GK. Osako1932+8
DS. Nakano1993+16
DH. Araki1931+20
DS. Higashi1974+18
MN. Arai1916+7
MH. Kawabe1913+21
MY. Nakajima1778+10
MD. Suga1735+29
MA. Suzuki1978+17
MS. Ayukawa1563+16
FS. Haller1842+5
CBartosch Gaul1931+15
GHalls1681−7
DK. Nagata14440
DY. Ishida14610
DY. Suzuki1666−12
DK. Sato1723−11
MH. Morooka1449−2
MYoon Sung-Jun14950
MH. Arai1498−1
MT. Shichi1521−4
MR. Nakano15680
FT. Kato1439−8*
CR. Popović1695−16
Before kick-off: 70% · 19% · 11%(Sanfrecce Hiroshima · draw · Kyoto Sanga)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 3–0 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Sanfrecce Hiroshima €1.4M, Kyoto Sanga €309K.
  • J1 League: S. Higashi was the highest-rated midfielder (1956).
  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima's expected eleven was in form: average +2.8 over 180 days.
  • Kyoto Sanga's expected eleven was out of form: average -1.5 over 180 days.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2nd in J1 League · 20 pts from 9

  • 11 OctWTokyo Verdy 1829
  • 19 SepWAvispa Fukuoka 1821
  • 12 SepWCerezo Osaka 1811
  • 6 SepLFagiano Okayama 1853
  • 2 SepWNagoya Grampus 1852

Kyoto Sanga

16th in J1 League · 8 pts from 9

  • 13 OctWRatchaburi 1580
  • 10 OctLMachida Zelvia 1623
  • 19 SepWFagiano Okayama 1639
  • 15 SepLDaejeon Citizen 1526
  • 11 SepLKashiwa Reysol 1665

Season outlook

From the J1 League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Sanfrecce Hiroshima20 /968.419%67%0%1st
Kyoto Sanga8 /943.60%<1%17%15th
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: J1 League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

H. Kawabe
H. Kawabe

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1892

R. Nakano
R. Nakano

Kyoto Sanga · -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1568

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Bartosch Gaul

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Ranko Popović

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: creative · shot-heavy (how Bartosch Gaul plays) · Kyoto Sanga: direct (how Ranko Popović plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.