UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Baku Olympic Stadium, Baku
Sabah FA host Borussia Dortmund on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sabah FA 13%, draw 20%, Borussia Dortmund 66%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sabah FA €870K, Borussia Dortmund €35.7M.
- Bundesliga: G. Kobel is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2470).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sabah FA goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–210%
- 1–110%
- 0–19%
- 0–38%
- 1–37%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–2expected 4.8 pts
Team Elo: Sabah FA 1766 · Borussia Dortmund 2258
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sabah FA · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1883
Borussia Dortmund · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2394
Absences
Sabah FA
None reported
Borussia Dortmund
Ruled out
- K. KaretsasAnkle Injury2240
- E. CanKnee Injury2225
- G. KonstanteliasKnee Injury2073
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sabah FA
1st in Premyer Liqa · 19 pts from 7
- 13 OctWSlavia Praha UEFA Champions League1785
- 10 SepLManchester United UEFA Champions League1779
- 25 AugWHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Champions League1787
- 19 AugLHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Champions League1818
- 11 AugWAarhus UEFA Champions League1760
Borussia Dortmund
2nd in Bundesliga · 14 pts from 6
- 17 OctDUnion Berlin Bundesliga2361
- 14 OctLBodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League2272
- 9 OctDWerder Bremen Bundesliga2364
- 19 SepWVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga2361
- 12 SepWSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2306
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FA | 3 /2 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 92.8 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 3 /2 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 71.5 | 18.4 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile