UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1
Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Skonto, Rīga
RigaTeam 1623
Kairat AlmatyTeam 1592Match story
Riga · draw · Kairat AlmatyBefore kick-off: 47% · 28% · 26%
Last reading, 90+4': 4% · 93% · 3%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- S. Oulad M'Hand 12'
- M. Gual 5' (pen)
We gave Riga 47% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 5'M. Gual 1684 −6* (pen.)
Kairat Almaty:M. Gual 1684 −6* (pen.) - S. Oulad M'Hand 1607 −8* assist M. Tonisevs 1724 −9*12'
Riga:S. Oulad M'Hand 1607 −8* assist M. Tonisevs 1724 −9* - 23'J. Oksanen 1692 −6*
Kairat Almaty:J. Oksanen 1692 −6* - M. Badamosi 1699 −8* (penalty missed) assist M. Badamosi 1699 −8*28'
Riga:M. Badamosi 1699 −8* (penalty missed) assist M. Badamosi 1699 −8* - 56'E. Tapalov 1528 +5
Kairat Almaty:E. Tapalov 1528 +5 - Reginaldo Ramires 1780 −9* for M. Badamosi 1699 −8*61'
Riga:Reginaldo Ramires 1780 −9* for M. Badamosi 1699 −8* - 73'I. Bekbolat 1448 +1 for Edmilson 1627 −4*
Kairat Almaty:I. Bekbolat 1448 +1 for Edmilson 1627 −4* - 79'A. Tuyakbaev 1326 +2 for A. Mrynskiy 1666 +4
Kairat Almaty:A. Tuyakbaev 1326 +2 for A. Mrynskiy 1666 +4 - 80'D. Kasabulat 1602 −7* for G. Mendonsa 1626 −2*
Kairat Almaty:D. Kasabulat 1602 −7* for G. Mendonsa 1626 −2* - S. L. Robalo Pedro 1462 −8* for R. Aouani 1333 −8*86'
Riga:S. L. Robalo Pedro 1462 −8* for R. Aouani 1333 −8* - C. Saco 1284 −8* for M. Diop 1453 −8*86'
Riga:C. Saco 1284 −8* for M. Diop 1453 −8* - 90+3'A. Martynovich 1447 −10*
Kairat Almaty:A. Martynovich 1447 −10*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 47% · 28% · 26%(Riga · draw · Kairat Almaty)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the starting XI: Riga €529K, Kairat Almaty €519K.
- Virsliga: Reginaldo Ramires was the highest-rated forward (1788).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Riga
2nd in Virsliga · 76 pts from 32
- 15 SepWSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1620
- 7 SepDBFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga1694
- 31 AugLFK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga1604
- 27 AugWKI Klaksvik UEFA Conference League1660
- 20 AugDKI Klaksvik UEFA Conference League1662
Kairat Almaty
2nd in Premier League · 60 pts from 26
- 17 SepLFC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League1619
- 13 SepLFK Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League1641
- 9 SepWZhenys Kazakhstan Premier League1627
- 5 SepWKaspiy Kazakhstan Premier League1589
- 31 AugWYelimay Semey Kazakhstan Premier League1617
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 0 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 0 /0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 55.1 | 37.5 |
| Kairat Almaty | 0 /0 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 28.1 | 70.8 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Riga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1776

Kairat Almaty · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1629
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.