UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3
Riga vs FK Jablonec
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Skonto stadions, Riga
Riga host FK Jablonec on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Riga 43%, draw 28%, FK Jablonec 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Riga €489K, FK Jablonec €690K.
- Home advantage makes Riga the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Virsliga: Reginaldo Ramires is the highest-rated forward (1788).
- Riga are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Riga goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: Riga 1664 · FK Jablonec 1674
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Riga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Good) · Elo 1755
FK Jablonec · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1754
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Riga
2nd in Virsliga · 79 pts from 33
- 22 OctDPafos UEFA Conference League1645
- 18 OctWSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1571
- 15 OctDKairat Almaty UEFA Conference League1637
- 15 SepWSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1620
- 7 SepDBFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga1694
FK Jablonec
8th in Czech Liga · 17 pts from 11
- 22 OctDBrighton UEFA Conference League1687
- 18 OctLPlzen Czech Liga1699
- 15 OctLSC Freiburg UEFA Conference League1696
- 10 OctWZbrojovka Brno Czech Liga1694
- 20 SepDZlin Czech Liga1652
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 2 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 2 /2 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 55.4 | 43.1 |
| FK Jablonec | 1 /2 | 5.3 | 0.3 | 34.6 | 65.2 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile