UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 5
Red Bull Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg host Ararat-Armenia on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Red Bull Salzburg 79%, draw 14%, Ararat-Armenia 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Red Bull Salzburg €2.5M, Ararat-Armenia €266K.
- Draw chance 14%, below the UEFA Europa League average of 22% this round.
- Bundesliga: K. Boma is the highest-rated defender (2037).
- M. Ayvazyan (Ararat-Armenia) has not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Red Bull Salzburg goals first.
- 2–012%
- 3–011%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 4–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.6 pts
Team Elo: Red Bull Salzburg 1965 · Ararat-Armenia 1516
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Red Bull Salzburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 2037
Ararat-Armenia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1644
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Red Bull Salzburg
2nd in Bundesliga · 30 pts from 12
- 8 NovWSturm Graz Austrian Bundesliga1928
- 5 NovLAnderlecht UEFA Europa League1935
- 1 NovWAustria Lustenau Austrian Bundesliga1940
- 25 OctWLask Linz Austrian Bundesliga1935
- 22 OctDCelje UEFA Europa League1924
Ararat-Armenia
3rd in Premier League · 29 pts from 12
- 5 NovLTorreense UEFA Europa League1606
- 22 OctLAZ Alkmaar UEFA Europa League1599
- 15 OctLJagiellonia UEFA Europa League1587
- 16 SepLSparta Praha UEFA Europa League1590
- 27 AugWUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League1562
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 4 /4 | 9.8 | 1.3 | 60.2 | 38.5 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 0 /4 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 99.7 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –